Changxin's new share subscription sees rare universal allocation on the Shanghai Stock Exchange: 18% winning probability for investors with an average daily market value of 200,000 yuan.

China's domestic leading memory chip maker Changxin Technology opened subscription today, eyeing to become the world's third-largest DRAM supplier. Institutional forecasts put the online subscription winning rate at 0.30% to 0.70%, with a neutral mainstream expectation of around 0.45%—10 to 20 times the 0.02% to 0.05% winning rate of average STAR Market new shares, leading to a "broad-based subscription" scenario. The core reason for the sharp rise in winning rates is that a large portion of strategic placements has been allocated to retail online channels, with the online issuance volume hitting a new high in STAR Market history. Calculated based on the neutral 0.45% winning rate, an average daily market value of RMB 200,000 in Shanghai Stock Exchange assets will yield around 40 allocation numbers, giving a single account an ~18% chance of winning a share. An average daily market value of RMB 1 million will theoretically almost guarantee at least one winning lot, while a maximum subscription of RMB 16.72 million will likely result in around 15 winning lots. This "broad-based subscription" IPO window is relatively rare in STAR Market history, with retail investors' winning probability significantly higher than any popular new share in recent years. However, it should be noted that all current figures are broker forecasts, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange will release the official winning rate announcement after the market closes on July 17. Key timeline points: Winning numbers will be announced on July 20, and investors must have sufficient funds in their accounts to complete payment by 16:00 that day. Each winning lot (500 shares) corresponds to a payment of RMB 4,330, with institutional estimates putting the profit per winning lot at around RMB 3,000 to RMB 26,000.