Goldman Sachs: Japan's AI semiconductor stocks haven't "broken" after their sharp plunge, Intel's capital expenditure hike creates a buying opportunity.

Goldman Sachs Japan’s latest strategy report points out that the recent sharp sell-off in Japanese AI-related stocks has created a buying opportunity, as strong earnings prospects are expected to revive investor interest in semiconductor shares. The direct catalyst for this assessment comes from Intel: the chipmaker raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook by approximately $3 billion, and explicitly stated it will significantly increase spending on wafer manufacturing equipment. Goldman Sachs believes that Intel’s acceleration of capacity ramp-up for advanced processes (including 18A and 14A nodes) and investment in advanced packaging will directly drive orders for closely related Japanese equipment suppliers, and the industry’s trading logic has not broken amid short-term adjustments. Under this framework, Goldman Sachs has named three Japanese semiconductor manufacturing equipment firms as top recommendations. Lasertec is listed as the industry’s top pick, with a maintained Buy rating and a target price of 70,000 yen; it remains on the Asia-Pacific High Conviction Buy List, and its high exposure to Intel’s sales will directly benefit from the advancement of advanced processes. Tokyo Electron also maintains a Buy rating, with a target price of 83,000 yen (current price is approximately 62,800 yen), as Intel’s increased fab equipment budget will support its demand for manufacturing tools. Disco, meanwhile, will benefit from Intel’s plan to expand EMIB-T advanced packaging capacity, with structural upside expected in demand for its back-end processing equipment.