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Suspense is mounting ahead of the Fed’s upcoming decision, with unusual options activity indicating a small group of investors are betting on a rate hike.

1 hours ago

The Federal Reserve stands at a turbulent crossroads. With current Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly hinting he will break the market convention of pre-announcing policy moves, this Wednesday’s interest rate decision has become one of the most unpredictable calls in recent years. Citadel Securities has bluntly predicted a "surprise rate hike" this week. The firm argues Warsh may use this move to signal the end of the "forward guidance" era, and restore the Federal Reserve’s independence by inflicting short-term pain on markets. On the other hand, the iShares 20-Year+ US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has recently shown strong bullish momentum. Data shows TLT’s put/call ratio has fallen to 0.63, a level not seen since May. On Tuesday, TLT’s call option volume hit 171,000 contracts, three times that of put options. Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, revealed the logic behind this "curve twist": If Warsh opts for a decisive rate hike, markets will view it as the Fed’s ultimate resolve against inflation, causing long-term inflation expectations to collapse and driving long-dated yields lower (bond prices rise). This means a hawkish rate hike could actually be a bullish signal for long-dated US Treasuries and tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100 index.

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The token Shandi has fallen below the 1,000 yuan mark, logging a cumulative drop of over 50% in the past month.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the crypto asset Shan Di fell below the $1,000 threshold during intraday trading, posting an 8.4% intraday decline and a cumulative drop of over 50% in the past month.

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Bank of America: Seven Ongoing Risks Plague AI and Semiconductor Sector Stocks

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Coinbase to list GRVT, with deposits set to open once the project team unlocks transfers.

Coinbase announced it will list Grvt (GRVT). Users can now generate GRVT deposit addresses on Coinbase’s official website, mobile app, and Coinbase Exchange in supported regions, though deposit functionality will be activated only after the project team unlocks token transfers.

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All three major US stock indexes fell by more than 1%.

According to Bitget market data, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell by over 1%: the S&P 500’s decline widened to 1%, the Nasdaq is now down 1.3%, and the Dow Jones is currently down 1.6%.

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Former senior Federal Reserve advisor: The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates today.

Former senior advisor to the Federal Reserve Jon Foster said he believes the Fed will not raise interest rates today, as he shares the view of FOMC Vice Chair John Williams that "the possibility of gaining a credibility dividend by deliberately surprising the market will not work."

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Bank of America clients have bought US stocks for four consecutive weeks, with institutional investors notching their largest weekly net buying since December 2020.

According to Bloomberg data, Bank of America clients remained active buyers of US stocks last week, extending their consecutive buying streak to four weeks. Institutional investors led this trend, logging the largest weekly net purchase since December 2020 — the second-highest level in BofA’s records dating back to 2008. Retail investors also continued buying, while hedge funds posted net selling for the third straight week. The technology, financial, and industrial sectors drew the strongest capital inflows, with the industrial sector seeing record demand after months of outflows. Communication services, energy, and materials sectors were the weakest performers.

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