Citrini: If the "25-year-old AI stock guru" completes its fundraising and lifts its hedging positions, the new funds could push AI stocks to hit bottom.

According to Deribit data, crypto options with a notional value of $10.3 billion will expire and settle tomorrow, with details as follows: · BTC options have a notional value of $9.5 billion, a put/call ratio of 0.28, and a max pain point of $64,000; · ETH options carry a notional value of $819 million, a put/call ratio of 0.59, and a max pain point of $1,800.

South Korea's NH Investment & Securities maintained a "Buy" rating on SK Hynix, but cut its target price from 4.1 million won to 3.4 million won. Citing the HBM4 shipment timeline and faster-than-expected adoption of long-term agreements (LTAs), the firm took a cautious stance and slightly lowered its 2027-2028 earnings forecasts. Even so, the focus remains on the sustainable supply-demand and profit levels brought by LTA implementation, rather than industry downturn cycles. Currently, the market still has high skepticism about the effectiveness of LTAs, so more time is needed for validation. Once the LTA's effectiveness is confirmed by the market, it is expected to drive a re-rating of the company's valuation. Meanwhile, although the company's cash generation capacity has improved significantly, the lack of a clear shareholder return framework remains disappointing. If the company clarifies its capital allocation guidelines, this will serve as a key catalyst for stock price gains. Given the company's still-solid fundamentals, the recent stock pullback has been excessive. SK Hynix reported 79.3 trillion won in sales for Q2 2026, up 256.8% year-over-year (YoY) and 50.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ); operating profit stood at 60.5 trillion won, surging 557.2% YoY and 61.0% QoQ. The company's results slightly missed market expectations due to product mix adjustments and the initial implementation of LTAs. Looking ahead to Q3 2026, with HBM4 shipments accelerating, bit growth for DRAM and NAND is projected to rise 10.0% and 1.3% QoQ respectively, while combined average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to increase 16.5% and 7.0% QoQ. SK Hynix is forecast to post an operating profit of 76.2 trillion won in Q3 2026, up 569.6% YoY and 25.9% QoQ.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, SKHX is currently trading at $921.3, down around 8% intraday, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $1.523 billion. Despite the price continuing to decline, capital has not exited; instead, the value of open interest (OI) has risen to about $571 million. Yesterday, SKHX’s OI increased from $443 million to $564 million, a daily rise of roughly $120 million, marking a 27.2% growth. After the price dropped further today, open interest continues to expand, and long position crowding has risen simultaneously. SKHX’s current funding rate is approximately +0.0431% per hour, with a 24-hour cumulative rate of around +0.3948%, a 37.5% sequential increase from the prior 24 hours, further pushing up the cost of long positions. Among whales holding over $1 million in positions, the long-short ratio stands at about 1.24:1, with long positions outpacing short positions by roughly $282 million, meaning both the number and value of positions lean toward longs. However, the closer to top addresses, the weaker the willingness to buy the dip. The overall long-short ratio of all holding addresses is around 4.02:1, but among the top 10 addresses with the largest positions, only 3 are long and 7 are short, bringing the long-short ratio down to 0.43. The top 10 addresses hold a total of about $172 million in positions, accounting for 30.5% of total OI. Currently, SKHX’s dip-buying power is mainly concentrated in long-tail funds.

Goldman Sachs’ trading team noted that US equities have recently experienced sharp momentum pullbacks and position liquidation, with the deleveraging process likely in its late stages, though substantive risk reduction has not yet been completed. Global total leverage remains at the 93rd percentile of the past five years, and events such as geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy, and earnings season may continue to keep market volatility high. Goldman Sachs expects US stocks’ upside in August will be constrained by seasonal fund outflows, insufficient institutional risk appetite, and dealer positive Gamma positions, with the market likely to trade in a range in the short term. If the market continues to decline, systematic strategies like CTAs may ramp up selling pressure; the estimated sell size in a downside scenario over the next week is $24.9 billion, far exceeding the ~$2.3 billion buy size in an upside scenario. Corporate buybacks will serve as the most stable buying support in the near term. Currently, about 31% of S&P 500 constituents are in their buyback open windows, a proportion projected to exceed 90% by mid-August. However, as individual stock-index correlation rises, the extreme risk of synchronized market sell-offs is increasing. Goldman Sachs advises investors to proactively purchase protective positions, including going long on market correlation, buying three-month put options on the Russell 2000 ETF, and allocating short-term option protection for retail-favored stocks. Current hedging costs remain reasonable, making them suitable for hedging further market downside risks.

According to an official announcement, Coinbase will launch Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil perpetual contracts. Trading for the BRENTOIL-PERP and WTIOIL-PERP perpetual contract markets will open at or after 17:00 Beijing Time on August 3.

Goldman Sachs’ report shows that Asian-focused equity hedge funds are facing their largest single-month drawdown on record, driven by a broad sell-off in AI-related stocks that has erased most gains from earlier concentrated bets on the sector. As of July 28, the average decline for Asian-focused fundamental long-short equity hedge funds stood at 18.6% for the month. In the first half of this year, these funds became among the world’s best performers thanks to early bets on AI hardware leaders including South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, with some posting returns exceeding 100%. However, the market has since seen a sharp reversal. Goldman Sachs noted that since hitting a year-to-date peak return of 40% on July 22, these funds have given back 21 percentage points of their YTD gains. The crowded AI trades that fueled the funds’ sharp rally in H1 are now the “key factor driving this month’s unusually large drawdown,” Goldman Sachs pointed out. Funds with higher AI exposure suffered heavier losses. Amid extreme market volatility, hedge funds have been locking in profits and reducing risk. Goldman Sachs data shows that as of July 27, Asian hedge funds have cut their exposures for eight consecutive trading days, with the “cumulative total exposure reduction over five days” hitting a record high. (Source: Jinshi)