Analysis: Failure of the CLARITY Act Could Trigger a New Round of Declines in the Crypto Market

Crypto KOL Ansem recently stated in a post that this cycle will be "very, very crazy". He pointed out that in the previous cycle, roughly 90% of retail investors became exit liquidity for smart money, as centralized exchanges only listed meme coins when their market cap reached billions, suffered from long-term infrastructure instability, and lacked user-friendly mobile apps. This cycle is a stark contrast: retail investors can buy any popular on-chain asset with one click across multiple chains in under a minute, and frictions in speculating on low-market-cap tokens have fallen to an all-time low. Centralized exchanges, having missed out on massive trading volumes, are now more proactive in listing tokens; Coinbase has integrated its native Coinbase Wallet, allowing users to participate in new token launches instantly. Ansem believes meme coin trading volume will not only attract retail capital but also draw developers: open blockchains enable skilled developers to quickly turn their ideas into immediate liquidity using AI tools like Fable. He is bullish on tokenization and innovative applications, and specifically noted that tokens capable of continuously capturing and compounding attention (such as ANSEM) will see significant gains in the bull market. Ansem argues that an on-chain supercycle has arrived.

According to monitoring by AI Yi, a mysterious crypto whale has been steadily accumulating crypto assets recently, having bought more than $220 million worth of ETH and WBTC since July. On-chain analyst AI Yi detected that this address withdrew 200 BTC from Binance four hours ago. As of now, the whale has withdrawn a total of 74,265 ETH and 1,400 WBTC from exchanges, with average costs of approximately $1,770 and $63,887 respectively. The position currently has an overall unrealized profit of around $3.8 million, with the ETH holding in profit while the WBTC holding remains in unrealized loss.

Per EmberCN’s monitoring, crypto treasury firms took divergent moves last week: Bitcoin-focused treasury firm MicroStrategy sold BTC again for the first time in a month, while Ethereum-focused treasury firm Bitmine continued adding to its ETH holdings. Data shows MicroStrategy sold 1,638 BTC last week at an average price of ~$63,957 per coin, totaling ~$105 million. The sale price was $11,462 lower than its average cost basis, resulting in an actual loss of ~$18.77 million. As of now, MicroStrategy holds 842,138 BTC, with an average cost basis of $75,419 per coin, translating to an unrealized paper loss of ~$10.829 billion, or a 17% loss. Meanwhile, Bitmine purchased 10,399 ETH last week at an average price of ~$1,909 per coin, investing ~$19.85 million. The firm currently holds 5,797,813 ETH, with a total value of ~$10.674 billion, an average cost basis of $3,371 per coin, an unrealized paper loss of ~$8.871 billion, or a 45.4% loss. According to statistics, Bitmine has maintained a consecutive weekly ETH purchase streak since launching its Ethereum treasury strategy.

As market focus shifts to the spate of earnings releases this week, U.S. stock index futures opened higher on the first trading day of the month. Additionally, Monday’s decline in oil prices also lifted market sentiment. Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James, said: “Earnings will remain the market’s top priority; roughly 15% of S&P 500 components by market capitalization are set to report their earnings.” He noted that the energy, healthcare, utilities, and industrial sectors are worth watching, as they “have benefited from recent market rotation.” He added that earnings from these sectors “will help determine whether this relative strength is sustainable from a fundamental perspective.” (Jinshi)

Former Federal Reserve economist and creator of the Sahm Rule, Claudia Sahm, stated that if the Federal Reserve continues to overlook grassroots economic signals, it may misjudge economic conditions due to distorted macroeconomic data. Sahm pointed out that the so-called "resilience" in current U.S. consumption data does not stem from growth in household wealth, but rather from families taking on more debt and lowering consumption standards to make ends meet. The Fed’s latest Beige Book shows that nearly half of the regional Federal Reserve banks have observed consumers covering daily expenses via credit cards, small loans, and other means. Meanwhile, grassroots consumption pressure is building: consumers in some regions are cutting back on high-priced food due to elevated prices, and demand for food assistance from charities has even exceeded levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the labor market, Sahm noted a gap between the official low unemployment rate and workers’ actual experiences. Fed interviews show that some workers describe the current job market as "survival-oriented" rather than stable. Due to concerns over economic uncertainty, workers are less willing to switch jobs, choosing to stay in their roles even amid stagnant wages. Sahm warned that while grassroots economic pressure is intensifying, some companies are proactively raising wages amid workers’ rising cost of living, which could reignite inflation risks. She argued that as a data-driven institution, the Fed should not rely solely on macro statistical data, but also needs to focus on ordinary households’ real perceptions of prices and employment; otherwise, it may miss important signals of economic changes.

Deutsche Bank has raised its earnings forecast for the S&P 500, projecting that the index’s earnings per share (EPS) will reach $358 in 2026, up from its prior estimate of $342. For 2027, the EPS forecast has been lifted to $420 from $390. The German lender said the upward revision is primarily based on strong Q2 corporate earnings results. A record 87% of S&P 500 constituent companies have exceeded market expectations so far, with Q2 corporate profits expected to rise 33% year-over-year. Deutsche Bank noted that earnings growth is spreading from large tech firms to a broader range of industries, while corporate margins have hit record highs and sales growth remains robust, indicating the resilience of U.S. corporate profitability.