U.S. manufacturing expansion hits four-year high, while bond market falls into "credit blind spot"
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Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the U.S. July Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, hitting its highest level since May 2022 and marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. The data further indicates that the U.S. July Manufacturing Production Index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, with new orders remaining robust and manufacturing employment rising for the first time since last September, signaling growing business confidence in the economic outlook. However, beneath the manufacturing recovery, inflationary pressures and bond market risks are still building. Recurring tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, putting strain on supply chains and raw material costs. While the July Manufacturing Price Index fell to 71.1, a five-month low, it remains at an elevated level. Strong economic data paired with inflation concerns have triggered sharp recent volatility in the U.S. bond market. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, described the current bond market swings as a "textbook inflation credibility shock," noting that the market is worried about insufficient communication from the Federal Reserve. Cabana pointed out that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has failed to clarify the specific path to achieving the 2% inflation target, and the end of the long-used "forward guidance" strategy has also left the market in uncertainty. Data shows that the 30-year U.S. Treasury term premium has risen to 1.51%, the highest level since 2013, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.28% at one point last Friday. Bank of America believes the Fed needs to rebuild market confidence through its September rate decision, otherwise pressure on the U.S. bond market could intensify further.
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