SemiAnalysis: If AMD’s stock climbs to $600–$700, Meta and OpenAI’s GPU capital costs could fall to zero.

Independent semiconductor and AI research firm SemiAnalysis reported that AMD reached agreements with Meta and OpenAI respectively in late last year and early this year, offering performance-linked warrants to both companies. The warrants will vest based on the procurement and deployment progress of up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, and are also subject to AMD’s stock price crossing multiple thresholds, with the highest threshold set at $600. AMD’s stock price has risen from around $200 at the start of 2026 to roughly $500–$600 currently. Assuming the stock price-related warrant vesting follows a roughly linear pattern and the full 6GW capacity is deployed, Meta and OpenAI’s hourly capital cost per GPU will drop from approximately $2.15 and $2.50 respectively to around $1.60 and $1.75. SemiAnalysis noted that if AMD’s stock price rises to the $600–$700 range, the two firms’ GPU-only capital costs could effectively fall to zero. If AMD continues to improve its software stack, secures more large client orders, and drives its stock price above $1,000, the capital cost of entire clusters—including server hardware, networking, and CPUs—could theoretically drop to near zero.