Crude oil prices plunge, the US and Iran signal positive developments, and a "free passage" agreement for the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be reached soon.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement in the next day or two to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore "free passage". Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim, during which the two sides discussed efforts to ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahaei said on the 4th that Iran is still in negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and the two sides have made "positive progress" at both technical and political levels. The negotiations focus on identifying safe shipping lanes for vessels and formulating relevant mechanisms to manage shipping through the strait. Expectations of diplomatic de-escalation pushed international oil prices sharply lower. Brent crude futures closed nearly 6% lower on the day, settling below $80 per barrel and currently trading at $78.52; U.S. crude futures fell more than 6%, dropping below $76 per barrel, and are now quoted at $74.28. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the relevant negotiations have made progress but are not yet finalized, and the U.S. hopes to reach an agreement "soon". Bessent added that once the strait is reopened, prices of commodities including energy, fertilizers and refined oil products could fall further. However, the relevant arrangements have not yet been formally implemented. Earlier, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary arrangement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but it ultimately collapsed due to issues related to shipping routes and safety. Analysts believe that even if a new agreement is reached, it does not mean the U.S.-Iran conflict is completely over, and there remains a risk of further escalation.