Predict.fun: Crypto Asset Price Prediction Market Launches "One-Click Buy" Feature

According to a report in The Economist, Michael Selig, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), wrote that the global derivatives market’s notional value has exceeded $1.2 quadrillion, with nearly half falling under CFTC jurisdiction. Amid the proliferation of automated trading, artificial intelligence, algorithmic execution, and real-time decision-making, the U.S. will not adopt a regulatory model based on limited trading sessions, single exchanges, and traditional screen-based trading markets. Selig stated that the CFTC has approved the first "true" Bitcoin perpetual contract as a futures contract, and is exploring the use of regulated stablecoins as collateral. Beyond crypto assets, a major U.S. exchange launched the first all-day gold futures trading service this year, and the CFTC is also discussing with market participants the potential development of non-crypto asset perpetual futures. He added that prediction markets fall exclusively under the CFTC’s jurisdiction, and possess value in information aggregation, forecasting, and price discovery. In response to nine European financial regulators’ claim that prediction market event contracts should be classified as gambling, Selig argued that this view misinterprets the structure of such contracts and overlooks their role in economic indicator and election forecasting. Selig noted that cross-border regulatory cooperation remains valuable, but international agreements and regulatory arrangements should be continuously updated to align with evolving market structures and technological developments. The U.S. will continue to set global standards by encouraging innovation and upholding market integrity, rather than waiting for broad international consensus to form.

The Kobeissi Letter reported that hedge funds net bought $48 billion in U.S. stocks last week, marking the second-largest weekly net buying volume since 2008. Calculated as a proportion of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, this purchase ranks 24th in historical records. During the same period, institutional investors net sold $3.8 billion, ending a four-week streak of net buying, with their average weekly net purchase over the past four weeks falling to $3.9 billion. Retail investors net sold a modest $200 million in the same period, bringing their average weekly net purchase over the past four weeks down to $600 million. Hedge funds are resuming large-scale buying of U.S. stocks.

Glassnode’s report indicates that the Coldcard vulnerability incident has driven Bitcoin’s daily active addresses to 980,000, a new high since December 2024. The on-chain activity growth is primarily fueled by panic, per Glassnode: holders are migrating wallet mnemonics and transferring funds to alternative custody methods in response to operational security risks. This shift does not represent a change in market confidence.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), NVIDIA is currently trading at $219.39. Data shows that 276 days have passed since Michael Burry, the real-life prototype of *The Big Short*, publicly went bearish on NVIDIA (NVDA), with the stock gaining roughly 6% over that period.

According to CNBC, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that leverage in current financial markets remains at elevated levels, with margin debt hitting an all-time high. Some borrowings are not directly classified as margin debt, but hidden in prime brokers, hedge funds, ETFs and U.S. Treasury arbitrage strategies. Dimon noted that high leverage increases the likelihood that a single investor or fund could quickly disrupt the market and trigger broader volatility. Recently, AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness faced margin calls after losing bets on leveraged tech stocks, forcing it to liquidate most of its listed stock portfolio. However, Dimon did not label the current leverage level as a systemic threat, stating that the overall market is still capable of absorbing the failure of individual institutions. He emphasized that the current environment differs from the 2008 financial crisis, when the real shock stemmed from impending massive losses in the mortgage market, not just leverage itself. Dimon also said that when market volatility rises, clearing firms and banks typically demand more collateral. At the same time, government deficits, infrastructure investment and global rearmament could reignite inflationary pressure and underpin higher long-term interest rates.

NFT trading platform Rarible has announced its official launch on Solana, with Claynosaurz serving as the platform’s first featured NFT collection. Over the coming days and weeks, Rarible will continue to onboard additional Solana ecosystem NFT projects. The company said its team has spent the past several months on development, testing, and launch preparations, while engaging with multiple NFT communities within the Solana ecosystem to learn about different projects’ stories, cultures, and community needs—feedback that has shaped several of the platform’s current product decisions. It clarified that Gacha Station, previously rolled out on Solana, was not a standalone feature but a preliminary trial ahead of this launch. Rarible’s goal is not only to list NFT collections, but also to collaborate with project teams to design market experiences tailored to each project’s unique traits. The platform noted that today’s launch is only a basic version, with plans to add more projects, features, market experience optimizations, content, and community activities in the coming period, while advancing its platform development in partnership with the Solana ecosystem.