Preview: The U.S. July non-farm payrolls report will be released tonight. If the labor market remains robust, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at most three times this year.

The U.S. July non-farm payrolls report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time today, with Wall Street firms forecasting a wide range of 18,000 to 83,000 jobs added, showing massive divergence. A Dow Jones survey puts economists’ average forecast at 83,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%; Bank of America projects around 80,000, while Vanguard forecasts just 18,000. Such a broad forecast range reflects highly inconsistent signals from the current labor market. Market participants believe that if the final data deviates significantly from expectations, sharp volatility could hit stock, bond and dollar markets. The unemployment rate remains a core variable for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave noted that if household employment data is strong, the unemployment rate could stay at 4.2%, but if the labor force participation rate rises, the rate may edge up slightly to 4.3%. If the data shows the labor market is "all clear", the Fed could raise interest rates up to three times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently pricing in only one rate hike this year. After Fed Chair Walsh abandoned forward guidance, the market lacks clear policy direction, and economic data has grown in importance, becoming the decisive factor in pricing the Fed’s future interest rate path.