Michael Saylor: Forks are meaningless if they lack security, practicality, capital, and users.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Leibit Mining Pool (BTC.TOP), wrote in an article that Bitcoin’s previous three major bottoms were all marked by “high losses and large volatility,” while the current market is characterized by “insufficient losses and low volatility.” He argues that instead of betting this is an unprecedented “calm bottom,” it should be viewed as a “respite phase” during the bottom-testing process. Taking the 2018 market cycle as an example, BTC’s $6,000 threshold was tested multiple times back then and was widely seen by investors as a floor that would not be breached. BTC sideways traded in the $6,000–$7,000 range for roughly two and a half months before dropping below that level, a pattern similar to the current two-month sideways consolidation in the $60,000–$70,000 range, after which the price plummeted to $3,000.

Michael Burry, the real-life "Big Short" protagonist, disclosed his latest holdings: he added to long positions in Lululemon (LULU) at $127.45, Freddie Mac (FMCC) at $5.43, Mercado Libre (MELI) at $1812.39, Fiserv (FISV) at $51.93, and Zoetis (ZTS) at $72.72. Additionally, Burry increased his short position in semiconductor ETF SOXX at $541, while his short positions in Tesla and Palantir remained unchanged.

Institutional analysis notes that markets widely expect US CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month in July, following a 0.4% month-on-month decline in June. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to hit a 0.2% month-on-month rate and 2.5% year-on-year rate, the smallest annual increase since February. Following Friday’s weak July non-farm payrolls report, slowing inflation growth could help ease internal inflation concerns at the Federal Reserve. At the July 29 policy meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike. The CPI report is likely to show energy-related price pressures have cooled, after surging sharply in the months following the US strike against Iran at the end of February. Retail gasoline prices fell to a nearly four-month low in early July before rebounding to above $4 per gallon by month’s end. The report may also show ticket prices have declined as jet fuel costs stabilize. (Jin10)

Fintech firm AI Financial Corp (formerly ALT5 Sigma, ticker: AIFC.O) has sold its Canadian subsidiary ALT5 Sigma Canada to New York-based PrimeDelta Corp. The transaction consideration includes a $12 million secured promissory note (with $1 million due next week and the remainder to be paid in installments) and approximately 11.6 million PrimeDelta shares, per a filing the company submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday. The filing did not disclose the reason for the deal, and both parties were unavailable for immediate comment outside regular business hours.

According to South Korea’s Seoul Economic Daily, Samsung Electronics became the world’s first to start mass production and shipment of sixth-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) in February this year, and its yield has recently approached 80%. The yield stood at less than 60% in the early mass production phase but stabilized within half a year—about four months ahead of the original target of hitting 80% by the end of the year. The semiconductor industry typically labels an 80% yield as the "golden yield", meaning firms can cut defect rates while securing stable output and boosting profitability. Samsung Electronics said that with HBM4 yield entering a stable range, it plans to lift HBM4 revenue in the third quarter to more than triple the previous quarter’s figure, and raise HBM4’s share of total HBM revenue in the second half of the year to over 60%. The company also set a goal to raise its HBM market share to around 38% by year-end, matching its DRAM market share. The expanded supply of HBM4 will also support production of NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin AI accelerators. Lee Jong-hwan, a professor in the Department of System Semiconductor Engineering at Sangmyung University in South Korea, pointed out that for key clients like NVIDIA, sourcing from multiple suppliers is more beneficial than relying on a single vendor; Samsung can scale up HBM4 supply and rapidly grow its market share.

JPMorgan Chase believes market concerns over SK Hynix's stock price decline are excessive. With the early announcement of its shareholder return plan and the company maintaining its competitiveness in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), its mid-term market sentiment is expected to improve. Key upcoming catalysts include: the shareholder return plan will be officially announced by the end of Q3 2026 (i.e., the end of September), and HBM contract price updates are also expected to be confirmed around the same period. SK Hynix has brought forward the announcement timeline of its shareholder return plan from "within the year" to the end of Q3. JPMorgan projects the company's cumulative free cash flow over the next three years will exceed 800 trillion won, giving it sufficient capacity for shareholder returns; taking into account proceeds from the sale of stakes in Kioxia and other gains, its shareholder return scale may be higher than that of other global memory chip firms. The company also plans to invest around 54 trillion won in infrastructure construction, including 35.2 trillion won for the Yongin Y2 DRAM plant and 19.1 trillion won for the Cheongju M17 NAND plant. In response to reports that SK Hynix's HBM4 is priced 50% lower than competitors, JPMorgan deems these claims inaccurate, noting market concerns are overblown. It forecasts SK Hynix's HBM price growth in 2026 will be less than 40% year-over-year, with reasons including the company's need to prioritize higher-margin long-term supply contracts for DDR5, LPDDR5, and NAND, and its approach to relations with top client NVIDIA based on multi-year partnerships and long-term procurement perspectives. Since HBM is typically re-priced annually, the importance of short-term pricing diminishes after securing 3-5 year long-term contract orders.