Goldman Sachs expects July CPI to come in slightly lower than expected, though the rebound in oil prices will prevent markets from fully easing.

Goldman Sachs' economic team forecasts July's core CPI will rise 0.19% month-over-month, slightly below the market consensus of 0.2%, with a year-over-year growth rate of 2.47%—also lower than the consensus expectation of 2.5%. For nominal CPI, Goldman projects a mere 0.05% month-over-month increase, below the market forecast of 0.1%, mainly reflecting the impact of earlier energy price declines. However, inflation risks have not fully dissipated. The bank notes its core CPI forecast corresponds to a 0.26% month-over-month rise in July’s core PCE, with components like portfolio management likely driving a larger gain. Looking ahead to the coming months, Goldman expects core CPI monthly gains to hover around 0.2%, housing inflation will continue to cool, the contribution of tariff-related price hikes will fall, and the pressure from jet fuel prices that previously lifted airfares will ease. July’s U.S. CPI is set to release at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, with markets awaiting the data to chart the next move for U.S. Treasury yields and tech stock rotation. Ahead of the release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to near 4.70%, while oil prices climbed back above $87. Goldman warns that if oil market disruptions and price rises persist longer than expected, inflation risks will tilt to the upside.