Murads 116 Reasons Why the Bitcoin Bull Market Could Run Until 2026

Murad's 116 Reasons Why the Bull Market Could Last Until 2026

Remember Murad, the self-proclaimed “King of Calls” from the last cycle — the man behind the Memecoin Supercycle theory?
He’s back.

In his latest podcast, Murad shared 116 bullish reasons, on-chain signals, and data insights suggesting that the current crypto bull market could extend well into 2026, potentially breaking the traditional four-year cycle.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin could enter a parabolic phase, reaching $150K–$200K.

ETF holders show unwavering long-term confidence.

The bull market isn’t over — Murad believes it will continue through 2026.

The stablecoin market is in its own supercycle, signaling strong buying power.

Recent sell-offs are mostly from short-term traders, not long-term holders.

The typical four-year cycle may extend to 4.5 or even 5 years this time.

There are more short positions than longs, creating potential for a short squeeze.

None of the 30 traditional Bitcoin top indicators have been triggered — suggesting the market hasn’t topped.

Current price action may just be a consolidation phase before the next leg up.

Option pain points in November and December ($102K and $99K) indicate strong upward pressure.

ETF cost-basis zones ($79K–$82K) align with realized prices, forming a powerful support cluster.

Why Bitcoin Crashed — and Why It Doesn’t Matter

Bitcoin’s recent drop from $125K to $80K wasn’t random. Murad attributes it to:

Profit-taking by “four-year cycle” believers.

U.S. government shutdown and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Forced selling by smaller reserve firms and early whales.

Minor “protest sells” from discontented OG holders.

Yet, he argues this 36% correction is typical — similar to past 30–33% drawdowns within this cycle — and still within a bullish market structure.

Technical Structure: Bullish Foundations Remain Intact

The 3-day candle just printed a bullish hammer, signaling a potential reversal.

Bitcoin continues forming higher lows within a long-term ascending channel since 2023.

On the logarithmic chart, BTC is still inside the decade-long uptrend channel dating back to 2013.

RSI levels on both daily and weekly timeframes are at multi-year lows — historically linked to major bottoms.

BTC’s MACD on 1D, 2D, and 3D charts hit the lowest level ever recorded.

The LeaC indicator just flashed its first buy signal since the FTX collapse.

On-Chain Signals: Capitulation, Then Revival

Selling pressure came mostly from short-term holders.

Their profitability ratio is the lowest in five years — a classic capitulation marker.

The realized losses metric hit its highest since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023.

Puell Multiple is at a “discount zone,” historically tied to mid-cycle bottoms.

Massive exchange outflows — one of the largest in history — often precede new bull legs.

Stablecoin inflows and supply ratios (SSR) show record buying power since 2022.

Stablecoin and Derivatives Market Dynamics

Stablecoin supply dominance is rising — historically aligned with BTC bottoms.

Mass liquidations of long positions signal a clearing of leverage and fresh reset.

Short interest exceeds long interest; the long/short ratio of 0.93 reflects extreme fear.

On Bitfinex, “smart money” long positions are back to accumulation zones.

ETF Data: Strong Hands, Strong Signal

ETFs now hold over 7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, up from 3% two years ago.

98% of ETF AUM remains unshaken after the 36% drop — proof of diamond-handed conviction.

The ETF cost basis and realized prices converge near $80K–$83K, forming a powerful structural floor.

ETF and perpetual futures volume on Nov 21 reached all-time highs, historically tied to capitulation reversals.

Macro & Market Structure: Setting the Stage for 2026

Despite a tight monetary environment (rates >4%), Bitcoin rallied from $15K to $125K, showing structural strength.

The probability of a rate cut in December rose from 30% to 81% — a clear tailwind for risk assets.

Major U.S. indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) are showing volume spikes and bullish divergences typical of mid-term bottoms.

Global M2 money supply growth remains a key driver. A renewed rise could fuel another parabolic BTC leg.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is testing historical resistance — a bearish DXY often precedes crypto rallies.

QT (Quantitative Tightening) is set to end by Dec 2025, possibly followed by a new round of QE — historically rocket fuel for Bitcoin.

Political & Structural Tailwinds

The Trump administration is one of the most pro-crypto in U.S. history — openly supporting Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins.

Discussions of $2,000 stimulus checks, bank regulation easing, and AI-sector prioritization all point to higher liquidity.

Global stimulus efforts — from China ending deflationary pressure to Japan’s $135B economic package — add to global liquidity expansion.

Risks to Watch

Murad highlights four key risks that could derail the bull case:

A sudden burst of the “Mega 7” AI bubble in equities.

Whale sell-offs intensifying.

A strengthening USD putting pressure on risk assets.

Liquidity deterioration if business cycles turn abruptly.

Final Outlook

Murad rejects the rigid four-year cycle theory, arguing that this market could extend to 4.5 or even 5 years, likely running through 2026.

“We’ve seen capitulation, disbelief, and structural resets — but not a top.
The bull market isn’t over.
The next leg will be longer, stronger, and wilder.”