Fed Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty Has Increased Relative to the Average Level of the Past 20 Years
On May 29th, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting stated that the staff continued to note significant uncertainties surrounding trade policies and other economic policies. Currently, the projected uncertainty was regarded as higher than the average level over the past 20 years. Risks to actual economic activities were seen as leaning towards the downside. The staff considered the likelihood of an economic downturn to be nearly as large as the baseline forecast. The significant upward revision to the 2025 inflation forecast was regarded as a means to balance risks around that year's inflation forecast. Subsequently, Federal Reserve staff continued to view risks around the inflation forecast as tilted towards the upside. Recent increases in some inflation expectation measures raised the possibility that inflation could be more persistent than assumed in the baseline forecast. (FX168)
2 hours ago
Fed Meeting Minutes: Option Pricing Implies One to Two Rate Cuts Within the Year
On May 29th. The minutes of the Fed meeting indicated that during this period, the benchmark policy path, based on option-implied prices (which represent the market's mainstream expectations), shifted slightly downward. This suggests that there may be 1 to 2 interest rate cuts by the end of the year (with each cut being 25 basis points). This is slightly more than the expectations at the March FOMC meeting. The option-implied probability distribution of year-end interest rates has shifted to the left, with significantly increased downside risks. As the market perceives an intensified downside risk to the policy rate, the implied expected policy path in the futures market shows a larger downward adjustment, indicating around 3 rate cuts before the end of the year. However, the median benchmark interest rate path from market expectation surveys has not changed much and still suggests 2 to 3 rate cuts this year. Nevertheless, the survey indicates that the divergence among respondents on t
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Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Inflation and Unemployment Risks Rise as of May Meeting, Policy Dilemma Ensues
May 29th. The most recent release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting indicated that Fed officials recognized at the previous meeting that in the upcoming months, they might face a "difficult balancing act," grappling with rising inflation and rising unemployment.
The officials' assessment of the increased risks of an economic downturn supported this outlook. The simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment will compel policymakers to decide whether to prioritize tightening monetary policy to combat inflation or to support economic growth and employment through rate cuts. As the economy adjusts to the higher import tariffs proposed by the Trump administration, "nearly all participants suggested that inflation might be more persistent than anticipated." The Fed anticipates that due to the tariff impact, this year's inflation rate will rise "substantially," while the labor market is "expected to weaken significantly," with the unemployment rate rising above the
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Fed Meeting Minutes: Trade Policy Had a Larger Drag on Economic Activity Than Anticipated
May 29th: In the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, it was mentioned that the staff's forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 was lower than that at the March meeting. This was because the announced trade policies indicated that actual economic activity would be more severely restricted compared to the policy assumed by the staff in their earlier forecast. It was also expected that these trade policies would lead to slower productivity growth, thereby reducing potential GDP growth in the coming years. Due to the anticipated earlier onset of the drag on demand and a greater response than supply, the output gap was expected to expand significantly during the forecast period. The labor market was expected to weaken significantly, with the unemployment rate forecasted to be above the staff's estimate of the natural rate of unemployment by the end of this year and to remain above the natural rate of unemployment until 2027. (FXStreet)
2 hours ago