Analysis: Retail Investors Have Shifted to a Bearish Outlook, Often Signaling a Potential Rebound in the Crypto Market

The Coinbase System Update 2025 product showcase livestream is scheduled for December 18 at 6:00 AM Beijing time, following teasers on December 17. Insiders previously tipped that Coinbase will unveil two new products: a prediction market and tokenized stocks—with the latter developed in-house, not via a partner. Per GMGN data, the news has driven gains for several Base chain tokens, including: - REPPO: Over $22M market cap, +42.6% 24-hour gain - ZORA: Over $520M market cap, +13.7% 24-hour gain - RUSSELL: Over $6M market cap, +236% 24-hour gain - RECALL: Over $95M market cap, +8% 24-hour gain - VPAY: Over $5M market cap, +22.8% 24-hour gain - COOKIE: Over $9M market cap, +5.4% 24-hour gain - VIRTUAL: Over $360M market cap, +4.3% 24-hour gain BlockBeats cautions users: Some of these tokens lack practical use cases, face extreme price volatility, and investing carries significant risk.

On December 17th, per GMGN’s Telegram monitoring, the meme coin GBACK—promoted again in Pump Live’s broadcast today—surged sharply. It posted a 24-hour gain of 53%, hitting a $23.8 million market cap (a new all-time high) and is currently trading at approximately $0.0238. Most other coins featured in live stream promotions have market caps under $2 million, with GBACK holding a notable lead. BlockBeats notes that meme coin trading is extremely volatile, driven largely by market sentiment and hype rather than underlying value or use cases. Investors should be mindful of the associated risks.

On December 17, a U.S. senator introduced the “Stop Annoying Foolish Entities Creating Nuisance (SAFE Crypto) Act,” which aims to establish a federal working group tasked with identifying, tracking and combating cryptocurrency fraud. The panel will include representatives from the Department of the Treasury, law enforcement agencies, financial regulators and private-sector experts. Its focus areas include: analyzing current digital asset fraud trends, identifying effective prevention methods, providing local law enforcement with improved investigative tools, and boosting public awareness of prevalent cryptocurrency scams.

On December 17, Binance announced it will delist the following spot trading pairs on December 19, 2025, at 11:00 UTC+8: AI/FDUSD, BICO/BTC, DOLO/BNB, MITO/BNB, MITO/FDUSD, MOVE/BTC, NEWT/BNB, and OM/BTC.

On December 17th, PolyBeats monitoring (via https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot) shows that in Kalshi’s prediction market “What is the best AI by the end of 2025,” Google’s Gemini now holds a 94% win probability—up from 30% at the start of this year. OpenAI’s ChatGPT trails at 5% (down from 41% early 2024), while xAI’s Grok sits at 1% (down from 14% early 2024). Trading volume for this market has reached $14.71 million, with final settlement tied to LM Arena leaderboard data. Additionally, Google’s upcoming Gemini model release is imminent, with Google insider NCW again confirming the date as December 17th today. NCW previously accurately pinned the Gemini 3.0 Flash launch to the second half of December, netting nearly $4,000 in profits—all 4 of their historical trades relate to Gemini product release date propositions. Recently, NCW set December 17th as the Gemini 3.0 Flash launch date: they bought “No” on the 16th at an average 80 cents, and “Yes” on the 17th at 78 cents—both positions are

**December 17** U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) for November beat expectations by adding 64,000 jobs, though still well below the annual average. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%—a nearly four-year high. August and September payrolls were revised down by a combined 33,000, signaling the labor market slowdown isn’t just a one-month blip but a sustained structural cool-down. Job gains concentrated in healthcare and construction, while federal government employment continued to shrink. Part-time and short-term unemployment counts climbed, reflecting a shift toward more conservative hiring practices. On the policy front, soft NFP data paired with rising unemployment reinforced market bets on an early Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot. While average hourly earnings held a 3.5% year-over-year gain, data distortions from the government shutdown and frequent revisions have eroded confidence in any single metric. Attention now shifts to trends and the Fed’s policy response framework. For cryp