Bitcoin Dips Below $86,000 This Morning

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted in a post on December 18 that Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the average entry price for short-term holders—with the 30-day STH-SOPR (short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) dropping to 0.98, per the chart. Two on-chain metrics signal rising selling pressure from new market entrants. Notably, the 30-day STH-SOPR tracks the average profitability of short-term holder selloffs: values above 1 mean profitable exits, while below 1 signals losses. The chart shows this moving average has fallen to the 0.98 level, meaning short-term holders are, on average, selling at a loss. A further drop in the metric would amplify selling pressure and trigger fresh local lows. Current sentiment leans heavily risk-averse toward short-term Bitcoin positions. Key reversal confirmation signals include: price moving above the actual STH entry price, and SOPR climbing back above 1.

On December 18, Reuters reported that Coinbase has named former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne as chair of its internal advisory board, a move aimed at expanding its influence outside the U.S. Osborne served as UK Chancellor from 2010 to 2016, stepping down after the Brexit referendum. He currently holds several positions, including chair of the British Museum and partner at investment bank Robey Warshaw LLP.

On December 18, SlowMist Cosmos posted on X that its team has discovered critical vulnerabilities in two cryptocurrency exchanges—vulnerabilities directly impacting fund security. Despite publicizing its findings, the team said it has not received any response or been contacted by the exchanges. One platform has a 24-hour trading volume of $3.7 billion, while the other’s is $240 million, per SlowMist. Separately, a tweet from the SlowMist team’s official account noted it proactively reached out to exchange ICRYPEX Global yesterday.

On December 18, the Hong Kong Economic Times reported that Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) and Ant Group have tokenized Ant Group’s Hong Kong dollar (HKD), Renminbi (RMB, or yuan), and U.S. dollar (USD) accounts. The tokenization was carried out under the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s (HKMA) Distributed Ledger Technology Supervisory Sandbox and the Ensemble project framework, using Ant Group’s blockchain-based financial asset management platform, the “Whale Platform.” The joint solution allows Ant Group’s business entities to adopt a new financial asset management model, enabling 24/7 real-time transfers of HKD, RMB, and USD. Mahesh Kini, Global Head of Cash Management at Standard Chartered, noted that as corporate reliance on real-time liquidity rises, market demand for real-time, 24/7 financial asset management is growing rapidly.

**December 18th** UBS analysis shows this week’s jobs report hints at potential softness in the U.S. labor market—something that could lay groundwork for the Federal Reserve to cut rates further early next year. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan noted in a client note the data “sounded alarm bells” across multiple areas. Caution is advised when interpreting the data’s quality, as the government shutdown has worsened low response rates in the Labor Department’s survey. Morgan Wealth Management Investment Strategy Director Elyse Ausenbaugh also flagged concerns, particularly around October’s data. She said the report reinforces the market’s take on the Fed’s current policy path: the past few months’ “insurance” rate cuts were a cautious step to bring rates closer to neutral. She added a further cut in Q1 2026 may be appropriate, but for now, the economy remains stable, and the Fed is taking a patient approach to future moves. (FXStreet)

**December 18th Update** Per GMGN monitoring (https://t.me/gmgnaibot?start=i_m4TE56o8), Solana-based meme coin FARTCOIN posted an ~8.4% short-term decline, hitting a low of $0.28 before settling at $0.29 in current trading. Additional data from HyperInsight (https://t.me/HyperInsight) shows FARTCOIN’s liquidations on Hyperliquid made up roughly 38% of the network’s total. The largest short whale (address 0x7fd) has been closing positions over the past hour: its current position size is ~$7.79 million, with an unrealized profit of ~$1.75 million (226% return). The whale’s liquidation price is $0.297, putting it just ~2.3% away from being liquidated. Arkham monitoring further notes the address is suspected to belong to web3 asset manager Fasanara Capital— which oversees over $3.5 billion in assets and has a team focused on cryptocurrency arbitrage trading and lending.