CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Price Has Dropped Below Short-Term Holder's Average Buy Price

CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted in a post on December 18 that Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the average entry price for short-term holders—with the 30-day STH-SOPR (short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) dropping to 0.98, per the chart. Two on-chain metrics signal rising selling pressure from new market entrants. Notably, the 30-day STH-SOPR tracks the average profitability of short-term holder selloffs: values above 1 mean profitable exits, while below 1 signals losses. The chart shows this moving average has fallen to the 0.98 level, meaning short-term holders are, on average, selling at a loss. A further drop in the metric would amplify selling pressure and trigger fresh local lows. Current sentiment leans heavily risk-averse toward short-term Bitcoin positions. Key reversal confirmation signals include: price moving above the actual STH entry price, and SOPR climbing back above 1.