QCP: The near-term trend will depend on whether institutional funds re-enter, geopolitical risks ease, and other factors

February 2, 2026 – Sharp swings in precious metal prices have wiped out 2026’s strongest rally, raising the risk of heavy selling pressure on global equities (Japanese and South Korean stocks already faced pressure in Asian trading). Gold plunged 10% at one point on Monday, while silver (SI=F) dropped more than 15%. As of press time, both metals have pared losses, but the broad market selloff has investors bracing for continued pressure on U.S. stocks when they open. ETF outflows are also dragging the crypto market lower. Malaya Bank Securities’ Tareck Horchani noted that former President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Wash as Federal Reserve Chair has sparked cross-asset volatility, as investors reassess positions in currencies, commodities, and stocks—especially after the U.S. dollar rebounded. Volatility has intensified further following the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), a leading commodity exchange, announcing higher margin requirements for precious metal futures.

On February 2, Optimism Governance announced it will transfer 6,400 ETH between wallets later today to enable flow staking for assets from the Optimism Collective treasury. Per the previously released Liquid Staking Request for Proposals (RFP), the protocol plans to allocate 40% of its roughly 21,500 ETH treasury holdings (equivalent to ~6,400 ETH) to the OP Mainnet’s flow staking protocol. The remaining 60% of the assets will be directed to native staking on the Ethereum mainnet.

On-chain data as of February 2 shows Hyperliquid’s ecosystem Assistance Fund has accumulated 40,028,984 HYPE tokens via buybacks. The total buyback cost is ~$8.9 billion, accounting for roughly 4% of HYPE’s total supply. The fund’s current market value stands at ~$12.49 billion.

Feb 2 — Per DefiLlama data, while mainstream perpetual futures DEXs (Perp DEXs) still see solid trading activity, open interest and total value locked (TVL) have trended steadily downward, signaling a broad market shift toward deleveraging. Among these platforms, Hyperliquid maintains relatively high trading volume but has seen a sharp drop in open interest—down ~30% from its prior reading. Below is the 24-hour trading volume breakdown for major Perp DEXs: - Hyperliquid (https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD): 24h volume ~$83B, TVL ~$43.9B, open interest ~$59.1B - Aster (https://www.asterdex.com/en/referral/aboter): 24h volume ~$47.8B, TVL ~$11.4B, open interest ~$20.2B - EdgeX: 24h volume ~$46.1B, TVL ~$2.02B, open interest ~$8.53B - Lighter (https://app.lighter.xyz/?referral=70045843): 24h volume ~$40.5B, TVL ~$9.54B, open interest ~$11.3B - Extended: 24h volume ~$22B, TVL ~$2.15B, open interest ~$3.11B - Pacifica (https://app.pacifica.fi/?referral=pacbot): 24h volume

Trend Research just deposited 20,000 ETH into Binance, per Onchain Lens monitoring as of Feb. 2.

February 2nd — Per monitoring from HyperInsight, the main address of Abraxas Capital (0x5b5d...) closed out 1,348.11 ETH in short positions, worth approximately $3.0076 million. Following this trade, the total value of the address’s ETH short position dropped to $18.0584 million. The position currently holds a floating profit of roughly $7.2781 million, with a return rate of 403.03%. Its average entry price is $3,202.42, and the liquidation price stands at $5,967.56. This address belongs to Abraxas Capital, a well-known hedge fund. The fund has been building a large ETH short position since May and was once Hyperliquid’s largest contract whale by capital. Since November, the address has consistently taken profits, with its position size shrinking significantly from a peak of $920 million.