Bitwise CIO: Crypto Winter May Be Nearing Its End, Recovery Window Is Opening

On February 3, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan noted that the crypto market has been in a long-term downtrend since early 2025, and the current environment should be viewed as a full-blown "Leonardo DiCaprio-style crypto winter à la *The Revenant*" rather than a temporary technical correction. Historically, crypto winters have typically lasted around 13 months from peak to trough, Hougan said, and this cycle may have kicked off earlier than most investors realize. While Bitcoin hit its peak in October 2025, he noted the market’s underlying weakness was already evident by January 2025—only masked by strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasuries. Though specific timing remains uncertain, Hougan believes the market may be closer to recovery than to further downside. He pointed to several positive catalysts: the winter has already stretched over a year, plus strong economic growth, positive surprises from the Crypto Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act), and signs of sovereign-level Bitcoin adoption. “The darkest hour is just before dawn,” he said.