Market News: Preliminary Investigation of Drift Hack Incident Reveals Team Member Was Previously in Direct Contact with North Korean Intermediary

April 5th: On-chain analyst Murphy noted that the average cost basis of all Bitcoin (BTC) unrealized loss positions has fallen below $100,000, currently sitting at $93,600. This means BTC returning to $93,000 would hit the market’s average breakeven point. During the two sharp selloffs in late 2023 and early 2024, a wave of high-level trapped positions chose to cut losses and exit—lowering the overall average cost of unrealized loss positions. This is commonly known as a "shakeout." Additionally, the 30-day average deviation coefficient between the average cost of loss positions and current BTC price stands at 1.4. For the past three bear market bottoms, this coefficient was at least above 2.0 (see blue waveform below). A coefficient ≥2.0 signals the market has entered the absolute bottom range. Currently, BTC’s price is less than 50% of the average cost of loss positions. To meet the 2.0+ coefficient threshold, this cycle’s BTC low would need to drop to $46,800. However, hist

On April 5th, cryptocurrency market research firm Santiment reported that Bitcoin’s recent bearish sentiment on social media has hit a five-week high. This past Saturday, the ratio of bullish to bearish comments in Bitcoin-related social discussions stood at 0.81—meaning roughly 4 bullish comments for every 5 bearish ones. This is the lowest reading since February 28th, reflecting a sharp rise in fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) within the community. Santiment analysts noted that elevated FUD often signals a potential market reversal, as the cryptocurrency market tends to move counter to mainstream expectations. Instead, the surge in bearish sentiment is viewed as a potential bullish signal, indicating the price may “turn more positive than expected” sooner rather than later.

April 5th – On-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) reports that address 0xB7C…467Ec deposited 1856 ETH (~$3.78 million) into OKX 45 minutes ago, with the move suspected to be a sell-off. Notably, $14.5 million worth of ETH from this address was withdrawn from a CEX at a short-term high of $3,339.38 on January 18th; selling this batch would result in a $1.89 million loss.

On April 5, per Arkham’s monitoring, Dragonfly transferred MNT worth $2.12 million to Bybit. This marks the first time in two months funds have been withdrawn from a known wallet, and it’s the largest holding outside of BGB.

On April 5, Coinglass data indicates Bitcoin remains range-bound, with funding rates across major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges now fully bearish—specific rates are detailed in the accompanying chart. **BlockBeats Note**: Funding rates are fees set by crypto exchanges to align perpetual contract prices with underlying asset values. They facilitate fund exchanges between long and short traders; exchanges do not collect these fees. The mechanism adjusts traders’ holding costs or profits to keep contract prices close to the underlying asset. Rate benchmarks: - 0.01% = base rate - >0.01% = broadly bullish market - <0.005% = broadly bearish market

Alternative data shows that as of April 5th, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index stands at 12—up from 11 the previous day—indicating a slight easing of market "fear" sentiment. Note: The Fear & Greed Index ranges from 0 to 100, with the following components: Volatility (25%), Market Trading Volume (25%), Social Media Hype (15%), Market Surveys (15%), Bitcoin’s market dominance (10%), and Google Trends Analysis (10%).