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As of April 17th, Fed Funds Futures imply the market is now pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut by December. (FXStreet)

On April 17, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that the Strait of Hormuz is now open for unrestricted commercial activity, but the maritime blockade against Iran will remain fully in effect until the U.S.-Iran deal is fully completed.

On April 17, per Reuters, U.S. officials said the U.S. military’s blockade of Iran remains in place.

On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced the Strait of Hormuz was "fully open"—sparking immediate market expectations of recovering oil supplies and sending international oil prices sharply lower. Market data shows U.S. benchmark WTI crude plummeted more than 9% to roughly $84 a barrel intraday, while Brent crude fell below $90, dropping over 8% and erasing nearly all its weekly gains. European natural gas prices also declined simultaneously. Former President Donald Trump later confirmed the news in a tweet, stating Iran is ready to resume full passage through the strait. Markets also got a boost from potential progress on a deal: Earlier reports indicated the U.S. is considering unfreezing around $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for nuclear-related concessions, with both sides possibly restarting negotiations this weekend. During the recent conflict, the strait’s closure disrupted roughly 20% of global oil shipments, triggering drastic oil price

April 17th — Per Coinglass data, **$23.68 million in liquidations hit the crude oil market in the past hour**, with only $60k (0.06 million) tied to short positions. Affected trading pairs include xyz:CL (WTI Crude Oil Perpetual Futures) and XYZ:BRENTOIL. Crude oil liquidations ranked **3rd across all networks**, trailing only Bitcoin ($78.23M liquidated) and Ethereum ($31.38M liquidated). On the news front: Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, driving WTI and Brent crude prices down **over 9%**.

**April 17** U.S. media reported Thursday (April 17) that the U.S. and Iran are in talks on a plan to end the war, citing two U.S. officials and two sources familiar with the negotiations. A key sticking point: the U.S. would unfreeze $200 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran abandoning its enriched uranium stockpile. Another source involved in mediation work noted the negotiations are expected this Sunday in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.