Bitunix Analyst: Yield Curve Control and Geopolitical Trades Take Center Stage, Global Assets Simultaneously Decouple

May 20: Markets are no longer fixated solely on inflation itself—instead, the key question is whether risk assets can sustain their overvalued global structure amid a sharp surge in long-term U.S. yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 4.7%, while the 30-year yield has topped 5.1%, pushing traders to reprice the risk that the Federal Reserve could resume interest rate hikes. Both Morgan Stanley and HSBC have warned that U.S. bond yields have entered a danger zone that would erode stock market valuations, with long-term yields in Japan, the U.K., and Europe also climbing in tandem—signaling a broad reassessment of global funding costs. Meanwhile, despite a narrow window for negotiations opening up in the Middle East, markets haven’t let their guard down. Former President Donald Trump has said he’s willing to give Iran two to three extra days to reach a nuclear deal, but also emphasized that if talks fail, the U.S. could carry out another military strike against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz hasn’t returned to normal operations, NATO has begun discussing escort plans for the critical waterway after early July, and India is planning to redeploy oil tankers to the Persian Gulf—all signs that the global energy supply chain is gradually moving toward a “semi-war-time state.” From a liquidity standpoint, U.S. stocks are starting to show signs of strain. The S&P 500 remains in decline, and long-term real interest rates are climbing, leading the market to reassess the valuations of AI and tech stocks. However, Deutsche Bank argues that oil prices haven’t spun out of control, economic data hasn’t weakened, and the Federal Reserve hasn’t formally entered a rate-hike cycle. As a result, the market is still stuck in a temporary phase of “high volatility but not a total collapse.” Turning to the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading in a tight range, but its underlying liquidity structure is starting to weaken. Looking at the liquidation heat map, there’s a significant short liquidation zone above $78,000, while a large volume of long liquidity is accumulating between $75,500 and $76,000 below current levels. Since the market’s current focus is on sovereign yields and global risk appetite, BTC’s short-term moves are more a reflection of broader liquidity conditions rather than an independent trend. If U.S. bond yields continue to surge out of control, risk assets across the board may face mounting deleveraging pressure.