Preview: The first non-farm payroll of the "Wash Era" will be released tonight at 8:30 PM

June 5: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release May nonfarm payroll data tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET. Market consensus expects the U.S. added roughly 85,000 nonfarm jobs in May—a sharp pullback from the roughly 150,000 average gain in the prior two months—while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Several firms have adopted a more cautious outlook on this nonfarm data: Goldman Sachs forecasts only 60,000 new jobs in May, pointing to weakened high-frequency employment metrics it tracks. EY expects an additional 50,000 jobs, with slight upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Vanguard’s chief economist Adam Schickling projects just a 20,000 job increase, attributing it to unseasonably warm and dry weather at the start of the year that boosted payrolls from January through April—an effect that may partially reverse in May. On the monetary policy front, if nonfarm data broadly meets expectations, the Federal Reserve is most likely to hold rates steady at its June 16–17 policy meeting. EY’s chief economist Gregory Daco noted that given a stable labor market and persistently high inflation, there’s a heightened chance the Fed issues more hawkish forward guidance at its next gathering. Policymakers may underscore that if inflation proves stickier, further rate hikes remain on the table.