White Hair Stock God Rui Evaluates Technical Analysis: It is the astrology of traders, but the rise in stock prices is mostly driven by fundamental factors

**Financial News Brief (June 14)** Renowned "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity pushed back sharply on technical analysis (TA) in a recent conversation, labeling it "traders’ astrology"—a tool for confirming market sentiment divergences and leveraging crowd psychology to identify entry points, not a reliable predictor of a stock’s true upside potential. "TA can help you gauge what retail investors and traders are thinking right now, but it won’t tell you how far a stock will actually go," Serenity stated. She backed her point with concrete examples: Virgin Galactic (SPCE)’s prior steep rally had nothing to do with a purported "Space Comet Candlestick" on charts; instead, it stemmed from market pricing in future revenue for firms like JBL and AMD. Meanwhile, AXTI’s 8,000% surge wasn’t triggered by a "Golden Waterfall Candlestick Alert"—it was driven by fundamentals including indium phosphide substrate demand, export controls, and photonics sector growth. For Serenity, the correct research approach centers on thematic correlations (like the link between LITE and AAOI), news catalysts, forward revenue projections, macroeconomic events, earnings reports, market liquidity trends, and game theory to calculate a company’s fair market value. TA, she emphasized, is only useful for timing entries and managing risk—never for determining a stock’s long-term trajectory. She used IREN as a cautionary case: many traders cited chart patterns projecting IREN above $120, but the company first needed to digest a $6 billion ATM offering, making those technical signals meaningless. "Fundamentals, catalysts, and thematic research set the direction—relying solely on technical analysis can lead to steep losses in sectors like AI and semiconductors," she warned.