Post-FOMC resolution, focus turns to PCE: FOMC may already have a handle on inflation internally
1 days ago
Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that to hit the 2% inflation target, he refers to a broader range of inflation data than just the PCE metric. PCE remains our key reference indicator, and we will continue to rely on it. It’s worth noting that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—June’s core PCE data—will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Committee members typically do not “wait for public data to gauge inflation levels”; instead, they already have access to staff estimates based on available information, and FOMC discussions are conducted based on these internal analyses. Current market expectations peg core PCE at a 3.30% year-over-year rise, down from the prior 3.40%. If the data comes in lower than expected, it will ease the urgency for the Fed to raise rates to curb inflation; if it beats expectations, it will reinforce bets on future rate hikes. (Jin10)
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