Goldman Sachs: Maintains Tesla at "Neutral" Rating, Sets 12-Month Price Target 8.8% Below Current Price

June 16 — Goldman Sachs is projecting Tesla’s second-quarter electric vehicle deliveries could beat market expectations, as rebounding demand in Europe and stronger sales in China offset softness in the U.S. market. In a June 15 research note, analysts led by Mark Delaney raised Tesla’s Q2 2026 delivery forecast from 405,000 units to 420,000 vehicles — a figure that outpaces the 400,000-vehicle consensus estimate from Visible Alpha. The bank says latest regional sales and registration data align with its earlier outlook for Tesla’s quarterly delivery performance. Europe was the quarter’s key bright spot: as of May, Tesla’s registrations there jumped roughly 85% to 90% year-over-year, with strong early-June numbers. But Goldman warned that this growth was partly driven by a low comparison base from the same period last year. By contrast, the U.S. market stayed weak, with deliveries down double-digit percentage points from the start of Q2 through May. In China, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows high-single-digit year-over-year growth, while other Asia-Pacific markets like South Korea and Australia held steady. Goldman also lifted its full-year 2026 delivery forecast for Tesla, pushing it from 1.72 million to 1.73 million vehicles. Projections for 2027 (1.88 million) and 2028 (1.96 million) remained unchanged. The bank also hiked its 2026 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate for Tesla from $1.30 to $1.35. Despite the improved near-term delivery picture, Goldman is maintaining its “Neutral” rating on Tesla, with a 12-month target price of $375. At the time the report was released, Tesla’s stock traded at $411.15 — meaning the target price implies roughly 8.8% downside potential.