The semiconductor sector has become the main driver of S&P 500 earnings growth, and it may contribute a record 48% to that growth in the second quarter.
The Kobeissi Letter noted that tech stocks now hold a historic share of S&P 500 earnings growth. In the first quarter of 2026, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft collectively contributed approximately 34% of the S&P 500’s year-over-year earnings per share growth, with semiconductor firms adding another 31%, and the rest of the index’s constituents combining for roughly 36%. Together, these two groups accounted for 65% of the S&P 500’s Q1 earnings growth—up from 52% in the year-ago period—indicating the index’s profit growth remains heavily concentrated in large tech companies and the semiconductor sector. Turning to the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, semiconductor firms’ contribution to S&P 500 earnings growth is forecast to jump 17 percentage points from Q1 to a record 48%, while the contribution from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft is projected to fall 25 percentage points to around 9%. The S&P 500’s earnings growth leadership is shifting from large tech platform firms to the semiconductor industry.
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US SEC Commissioner: Crypto custody and lending strategies may violate federal securities laws.
U.S. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce issued a statement noting that while many crypto assets and related activities are not subject to U.S. federal securities laws, this does not mean all crypto activities can be exempt from securities regulatory oversight. Shifting activities originally under the jurisdiction of securities laws onto the blockchain typically does not alter their legal nature.
Peirce pointed out that crypto asset vaults usually use smart contracts to allocate user funds to yield strategies such as staking and lending. If a vault operator is responsible for selecting yield activities, reallocating assets, or designating decision-makers, their actions may implicate securities laws. Some vaults could be classified as common enterprises that rely on the operator’s efforts to generate profits, or fall under the regulatory purview of investment companies, unit investment trusts, and investment advisors.
On-chain lending strategies may also run afoul of securities laws. Operators responsible for setting interest rates, supporting assets, loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and liquidation thresholds should assess whether their activities are regulated; some on-chain loans may also be deemed securities-like notes based on specific factors such as transaction motives and distribution arrangements.
Peirce added that the SEC welcomes vault and on-chain lending project teams to communicate with regulators. If existing rules hinder innovation, market participants can also propose amendments to strike a balance between protecting investors, maintaining market order, and facilitating capital formation.
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NVIDIA challenger CBRS soared 20%, rebounding above its issue price; buy-the-dip addresses in the below-issue-price zone once saw gains of up to 380%.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, during U.S. stock trading hours, Nvidia challenger Cerebras (CBRS) rose as high as $242, with its gain expanding to 23%. Today's catalyst is Cerebras' strategic partnership with CrowdStrike, where the latter will use Cerebras' inference infrastructure to power the Falcon AI Detection and Response model, though the two sides did not disclose the contract amount. CBRS has thus re-stabilized above its IPO price of $185. On May 14, its first day of trading, the stock hit a high of $386.3 and closed at $311; after its first financial report, when the full-year core gross margin guidance fell short of expectations, the stock closed below its IPO price for the first time on June 25, and hit an all-time low of $160.81 on June 26. Calculated from today's high, CBRS has rebounded 49.2% from its all-time low, and is now 29.7% above its IPO price; however, it remains 37.9% below its all-time high of $386.34 on its first trading day, meaning it has only recouped its post-IPO decline and not yet returned to its first-day peak. A smart money address starting with 0xc262 first traded CBRS on July 18, opening a long position of 1036.35 shares via 217 trades during a brief second dip, at an average price of $173.6, for a total of approximately $179,000. Its cost is 6.1% lower than the IPO price. When CBRS rose to around $239.64 on Hyperliquid intraday, this 10x isolated long position once recorded a return of 380%. As of press time, the position is valued at about $237,700, with an unrealized profit of roughly $57,700, a return of 320.7%, and a liquidation price of $81.9.
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Iran: If the U.S. attacks Iran's bridges and power plants, it will retaliate against U.S.-linked regional infrastructure.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, military sources stated that if Washington attacks Iran's bridges or power plants, Tehran will retaliate against U.S.-linked regional infrastructure, including bridges and energy facilities. (Jinshi)
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