Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady next week

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, CXMT on Hyperliquid is currently trading at $6.4658, down roughly 0.8% over 24 hours, equivalent to ~￥43.93. This is 5.07 times the ￥8.66 IPO price of Changxin Technology, representing a ~407% premium. Changxin Technology is set to list on the STAR Market on July 27 (next Monday), with stock code 688825. Its total post-IPO share count is ~668.81 billion, of which ~45.03 billion shares will be tradable from the first day of listing. Calculated at CXMT’s current price, its implied market cap is ~￥2.94 trillion, ~￥2.36 trillion higher than the IPO valuation of ￥579.188 billion. CXMT futures launched on July 15, hitting a high of $8.64 (~￥58.70) from $6 on its first day, at one point trading at a 577.8% premium to the IPO price, with its implied market cap once approaching ￥3.93 trillion. The current price has fallen 25.2% from that peak, but remains 7.8% higher than its launch price. Open interest for CXMT on the platform stands at ~$50.1 million, with 24-hour trading volume of ~$11.566 million. On the address front, the largest existing position is held by address 0xf29, which is short $8.53 million worth of CXMT at 1x leverage, with an average entry price of $6.6, unrealized profit of $170,000, and liquidation price of $15. Meanwhile, the largest recent million-dollar position (a whale address starting with 0x8e09) has started reducing its long positions; after 13:00 today, it sold a small portion of 30,000 units. As of press time, this address still holds 204,100 CXMT long positions in isolated mode at 5x leverage, with a position value of ~$1.19 million, average entry price of $6.57, unrealized loss of ~$17,000, and a return of ~-7.9%. Although this position is marked as 5x leverage, it has posted ~$1.196 million in isolated margin, resulting in an effective leverage of only ~1.1x; it is currently labeled "Hanba Xiaolong" on Hyperliquid.

According to the latest compiled data on flexible savings and earn products of major centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs), platforms including HTX, Binance, OKX, and Bitget continue to offer stablecoin current yields structured as "high returns for small amounts, tiered reduction for excess amounts". For USDT: HTX’s 0-200 USDT tier has an annualized yield of 10%, dropping to 1.95% for amounts over 200 USDT; Bitget’s 0-300 USDT tier yields 6.25%, with excess amounts at 1.59%; Binance’s 0-200 USDT tier is 4.54%, excess at 1.54%; OKX’s is 1.63%. For USDC: HTX’s 0-200 USDC tier offers an annualized yield of 8%, falling to 2.75% above 200 USDC; Bitget’s 0-300 USDC tier is 6.66%, excess at 1.73%; Binance’s 0-200 USDC tier is 6.51%, excess at 1.51%; OKX’s is 1.68%. For other stablecoins: HTX’s USDT VIP tier has an annualized yield of 6%-9%, while Bitget’s USDT VIP 0-300,000 tier is 1.88%; USDE’s annualized yields on HTX, Binance, and Bitget are tiered at 5%/3%, 4.00%, and 1.81% respectively; HTX’s USDD is 4.00%; Binance’s U product has an annualized yield of 8.53% for the 0-10,000 tier, dropping to 0.53% for excess amounts. Overall, current high yields on stablecoin flexible savings products of major CEXs remain concentrated in small amounts, with yields generally lower for large sums. When comparing related products, users should not only consider the nominal annualized yield, but also note tier limits, interest calculation rules, supported currencies, and real-time product availability. The above data is displayed yield rates and does not constitute investment advice.

South Korea’s Mirae Asset Group has completed the acquisition of a 97.15% stake in Korbit, a veteran South Korean cryptocurrency exchange, and plans to rebrand the platform as Digital X. The deal was finalized after securing approval from South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission, and the group currently has no plans to acquire the remaining shares. Mirae Asset stated that Digital X will be positioned as a "smart investment platform" that integrates real-world assets (RWA), security token offerings (STOs), stablecoins, traditional assets, and digital assets into a unified investment ecosystem, while connecting knowledge, information, and in-depth investment research. The "X" in the name represents the unknown future and infinite possibilities arising from the convergence of different value forms. Korbit currently holds less than 1% of South Korea’s domestic crypto market share, far trailing Upbit and Bithumb. Mirae Asset emphasized that its goal is not to outperform other exchanges, but to combine its global investment expertise with Korbit’s digital asset capabilities to drive the steady, sustainable development of the digital asset industry in South Korea and globally. The group also plans to strengthen investor education, research capabilities, and institutional-grade infrastructure, while strictly adhering to anti-money laundering (AML), know-your-customer (KYC), and fraud detection standards across all operations to serve both institutional clients and retail traders.

South Korea’s stock market posted sharp declines today, with SK Hynix plunging over 8% and Samsung Electronics falling more than 7%. Some analysts attribute the sell-off to a recent bearish report on memory chips released by Shawn Kim, head of Asia Tech Research at Morgan Stanley, though others argue the report may not be the direct cause of the market drop. In his July 21 report, Kim noted that the AI-driven memory chip boom is nearing an inflection point, with memory contract prices likely to peak in the fourth quarter, and the share of upward earnings revisions has dropped from 92% to 77%. The report also pointed out that NAND module manufacturers’ inventories have risen to around 13 weeks, approaching the peak of roughly 15 weeks recorded during the pandemic, and put forward the trading logic: "Sell DRAM when NAND turns down." Separately, Morgan Stanley was excluded from the joint lead underwriter lineup for SK Hynix’s roughly $265 billion American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listing. The selected underwriters are Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, leaving Morgan Stanley as the only top-tier investment bank left out. At a 0.5% underwriting fee rate, the total commission for the project is approximately $130 million. Multiple banking sources said Morgan Stanley’s Seoul office has launched internal reflection on whether its consistent negative semiconductor reports have harmed its investment banking business. Beyond the SK Hynix deal, Morgan Stanley has recently been embroiled in disputes over SpaceX’s share placement and the sale of IGIS Asset Management in South Korea. These incidents further highlight the tension between the research department’s independence and the commercial interests of investment banking, and have amplified its reputation and business pressure in the South Korean market.

According to Bitget data, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 2.73% to 64,611.15 points. South Korea’s KOSPI index closed down 5.73% to 6,690.02 points. SK Hynix fell 8.33% at close, while Samsung Electronics dropped 7.59%.

Whale "Xian Ding 10 Big Goals" stated in a post that after closing its short positions, it quickly re-established long positions, as its medium- to long-term bullish view on Bitcoin remains unchanged. It believes the key dividing zone of the last bull market is around $60,000, and Bitcoin’s current mainstream mining cost is also concentrated between $50,000 and $60,000. Last month, Bitcoin dipped to $58,000 before rebounding rapidly, further confirming the support capacity of this zone. Over the past month, Bitcoin has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover in the $58,000–$63,000 range, and has re-stabilized near $66,000 after a pullback. Provided there are no systemic risks or major fundamental changes, the risk-reward ratio of chasing short positions at current levels is no longer favorable, and the market may see a volume-driven rally that breaks through $72,000. If the market structure does not change significantly, Bitcoin has a high probability of retesting $100,000 around March next year. Currently, US stocks—especially AI-related sectors—are trading at relatively high valuations and may face significant volatility going forward. Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks has decreased notably compared to previous cycles, and it is gradually moving toward an independent trend. The whale has set a trading invalidation zone for its current positions: if the market falls back to $61,500–$64,000 and the trend proves its judgment wrong, it will immediately close positions to control losses. It emphasized: "Views can be adjusted, but discipline must remain unwavering." Additionally, the latest public data shows that the whale "Xian Ding 10 Big Goals" has set the position of its Binance real futures account "Jason leo133" to private.