Citrini’s View: Short-term bearish on storage, bullish on optical interconnection; a market consensus has formed that storage prices may peak within two quarters.
1 hours ago
Citrini analyst Jukan wrote in a recent report that the market will shift to a short-term "bearish on storage, bullish on optical interconnects" trend, with some hedge funds already executing this strategy. The three key reasons are: First, South Korean leveraged ETFs have largely become ineffective, bringing additional selling pressure from concentrated redemptions by limited partners; Second, NVIDIA is reducing HBM configurations for Rubin Ultra, opting instead for optical interconnects to connect multiple racks. Even without improving single-rack performance, clusters can still maintain advantages, a logic that holds whether the HBM reduction stems from supply or demand issues; Third, the market has formed a consensus that storage prices will peak in the next two quarters. Jukan clarified that he remains bullish on storage in the medium to long term but slightly bearish in the short term, and currently holds no storage positions.
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