Serenity: Still bullish on the storage sector, market focus has shifted back to the photonics space.
1 hours ago
Serenity stated in a post that it remains bullish on the storage sector represented by Micron (MU) and Samsung, noting that markets tend to rotate between different supply bottlenecks. This week, photonics sector stocks including AXTI and LITE have once again come into focus. Compared to the period of the July sell-off, the primary change has been in stock prices, followed by scattered narratives and business updates. He pointed out that during the July sell-off, the market was already aware that laser products from COHR and LITE are fully sold out for the next two years, and had learned of demand imbalances from AAOI’s last quarter earnings call. Apart from post-correction stock price movements, the fundamentals of the photonics sector have not deteriorated; bottlenecks in optical transceivers and indium phosphide substrates remain unchanged, and may even intensify further. On the storage front, Serenity noted that retail investors are showing capitulation sentiment, while the same group had been extremely bullish after MU signed 16 SCAs and issued strong forecasts. He believes that the current ratio of operating profit to market capitalization for storage businesses is "extremely unreasonable", and demand imbalances may worsen next year. For the same companies, only valuations and narratives have changed, while the market rotates between different sectors.
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