5 Key Indicators Show We’re Far From the Bull Market Top

Indicators that I check to predict Top of the Bullrun

a thread 🧵🔽

I’ve seen 3 full market cycles & every time majory can't predict the pico top. Never:

• Some say it’s the final top
• Others think it’s just getting started

But if you follow real indicators, the signs are always clear

I mostly monitor 5 major indicators that have accurately signaled every previous market peak:

• Pi Cycle Top
• Bitcoin AHR999 Index
• Puell Multiple
• Rainbow Chart
• Bitcoin Bubble Index

At this moment? None of them are flashing a market top

Here's a breakdown of each👇

Pi Cycle Top: No signal yet

The 111-day moving average still hasn’t crossed above 2× the 350-day moving average

That precise crossover perfectly marked the tops in 2013, 2017, and April 2021

Currently, we’re only about 69% of the way to that threshold

Bitcoin AHR999 Index ≈ 1.22

The risk zone typically begins around 3–4

At the last cycle peak, the index spiked to 9.0

Sitting at 1.25 today, Bitcoin is trading above fair value, but far from bubble territory.

This suggests we’re still mid-cycle

Puell Multiple ≈ 0.8

Historically, major tops form when this hits 4/5 - that’s when miners start heavily selling, triggering corrections

At 0.8 we’re still well below that danger zone

Even with Bitcoin at $120K, miners revenue isn't overstretched

Rainbow Chart: Currently in the green zone

The danger zone sits in bright red - where past blow-off tops have occurred

Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around the middle of the spectrum

According to this model, there's still room for growth before we reach the peak euphoria

Bitcoin Bubble index: Sitting at 12–15

In past bull market tops, this index soared to 80–100

Today? We're far from that - no hype, no mania, and the retail crowd is still mostly on the sidelines

Search interest is low, inflows are modest, and social sentiment remains quiet

All 5 indicators agree:

• Not overbought
• Not euphoric
• Not the peak

This is a mid-run pause - selling now risks missing the run to $150K+

https://x.com/leshka_eth/status/1944702193409708150

Altseason hasn’t kicked off much yet

The Altseason Index has picked around 50 - it needs to break above 75 to signal a true altseason

BTC dominance remains high, indicating that the market is just starting to shift

Major tops don’t happen before memecoins go parabolic...

What’s the move now?

Stay patient and monitor key signals

Don’t exit positions just because CT feels overheated and depressed about recent $PUMP price action

True market tops arrive with retail FOMO, explosive altcoin rallies, and extreme indicator readings

We’re not in that zone yet.