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Why I’m Selling All My ETH by October — Even in a Bull Market

Orbion
/2025.08.12 00:19:04
The market looks strong now, but history says the top comes fast and brutal. I’m targeting $5.8K–$6K ETH before fully exiting by October, following the same BTC–ETH–alt rotation patterns from 2017 and 2021 to lock in profits before the crash.

🚨I sold 33% of my $ETH bag today

Most will call me an idiot for what I’m about to do...

But I've seen this setup back in 2017 and 2021

Here's why I will SELL everything by the end of October

I’m still bullish on the market right now, but my plan is to fully exit by the end of October

BTC has already done a clean 2x from the lows this year, showing strong momentum and institutional demand

ETH has broken and held above $4,200, setting the stage for a final push higher in the coming weeks

The setup looks strong now, but every cycle ends the same way - fast and brutal when the top comes

My short-term target for ETH is in the $5,800 - $6,000 range if momentum continues

That would mean a full 3x from the cycle lows, matching historical mid-cycle extension levels

Once ETH peaks, I expect capital to rotate heavily into high caps and then into low caps very quickly

This rotation is where the biggest altseason gains happen - but it’s also the most dangerous phase

The BTC-ETH-high cap-alt rotation is a pattern that has repeated in 2017 and 2021 without exception

We’re now in the ETH dominance stage, where the market feels euphoric and liquidity is at its highest

This stage typically lasts only weeks before liquidity shifts away from the market entirely

If you’re not already planning your exit, you’re setting yourself up to be exit liquidity

I expect BTC to start showing signs of topping in late September, with ETH following shortly after

By end of October, BTC could be in the $55K range, ETH back to $1,400, and SOL near $75

This is not a bearish prediction - it’s simply how post-peak corrections have played out historically

Smart money rotates out months before retail realizes the game is over

The reason I’m planning my exits now is because markets don’t give you time to react when momentum dies

Alts can drop 20-30% in a single day and never recover their highs again for the rest of the cycle

Once liquidity dries up, founders disappear, narratives collapse, and support levels fail instantly

If you’re not selling into strength, you’re selling into panic - and that’s never profitable

Key metrics like NUPL, SOPR, and MVRV have reliably signaled tops in every past cycle

NUPL at +0.75 shows extreme unrealized profit levels across holders - a major warning sign

SOPR turning negative shows coins are being sold at a loss after euphoria peaks

MVRV deep red means the market value is far above the cost basis - unsustainable for long

I’ll also be watching BTC dominance closely - when it breaks down while ETH is peaking, altseason goes into blow-off top mode

Altseason Index above 65 is another trigger that the final speculative wave is here

This phase looks bullish but is actually the most dangerous part of the market

The smartest players exit while it still feels like they could have made more

My strategy is to sell in stages rather than try to time the exact top

Step 1 - Take profits on the riskiest alts first, especially memes and low liquidity plays

Step 2 - Exit high caps like SOL, AVAX, and MATIC during peak rotation days

Step 3 - Scale out of ETH and BTC into stables and yield positions before mid-October

I’m bullish now because the rate cut in September will be a short-term catalyst for crypto

Liquidity injections will fuel the final leg of the rally, creating sharp upward moves across the board

But that rally will be fast - weeks, not months - which means exit planning is critical now

Waiting until it “feels right” will almost always mean you’ve waited too long

The biggest mistake traders make is thinking there will always be another bounce after the first drop

A -10% correction becomes -30%, then -50%, and by then you’re locked in for years of waiting

I’ve made that mistake myself - it’s why I now sell into strength instead of weakness

Bear markets start instantly, not gradually

You don’t have to sell everything at once - scaling out keeps you in the game if price keeps going higher

The goal is to leave with life-changing profits, not to perfectly time an uncatchable top

If you’re up 20x, holding for 22x is gambling with your future

Secure what you’ve made before the market takes it back

The top will feel like the most bullish moment of the cycle - record exchange volumes, ATH headlines, and nonstop hype

That’s exactly when the smartest money will be unloading their positions

If you want to be in that group, you need to prepare before October

Because when the music stops, it will be too late to find a chair

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