Galaxy Research 2026 Outlook: 26 Predictions Shaping Crypto’s Next Phase

Galaxy Research just dropped a new research report for 2026. 

Here's my TL;DR of all their predictions, summarized.

1. BTC to $250K by 2027 

BTC is expected to grind toward $250K by end-2027, but 2026 is framed as too chaotic for clean forecasts, with wide option-implied ranges and macro overhangs.

2. Solana Internet Capital Markets to $2B market cap

Solana's onchain economy shifts from meme cycles toward revenue-generating businesses, pushing ICM from ~$750M to $2B.

3. A major L1 enshrines a revenue app to boost the native token

At least one general-purpose chain will embed a money-making app at the protocol layer and route value directly to the L1 token as pressure mounts for sustainable value capture.

4. No Solana inflation cut passes (SIMD-0411 withdrawn)

Inflation reform stays deadlocked and gets deprioritized versus market structure improvements, with the expectation that no proposal will clear in 2026.

5. Corporate L1s go from pilots to real settlement rails (>$1B)

A Fortune 500 launches a branded corporate L1 that settles over $1B of real activity and connects to public DeFi via a production bridge.

6. Apps take more: app revenue vs network revenue doubles

Fee compression, reduced MEV leakage, and app dominance push value capture upward. fat apps keep outpacing fat protocols.

7. SEC opens a path for tokenized securities in DeFi (exemptive relief)

Some form of innovation exemption / no-action relief enables legal tokenized securities to integrate into DeFi, with formal rulemaking starting later in 2026.

8. SEC gets sued over the innovation exemption

A TradFi player or trade group challenges the SEC for granting exemptions to DeFi/crypto firms instead of doing full rulemaking.

9. Stablecoins overtake ACH in transaction volume

With high velocity and sustained supply growth, stablecoins will surpass ACH volume as regulatory clarity (GENIUS Act definitions) accelerates adoption.

10. TradFi-partnered stablecoins consolidate into a few winners

Consumers/merchants won’t juggle many digital dollars, so distribution-heavy coalitions (banks, processors, big platforms) dominate as smaller issuers merge/partner.

11. A major bank/broker accepts tokenized equities as collateral

Tokenized equities move from experiments to real financial plumbing when a top institution treats onchain equity deposits as equivalent collateral.

12. Card networks settle cross-border on public-chain stablecoins (10%+)

One top-3 card network routes meaningful cross-border settlement through stablecoins while keeping the user experience fully “non-crypto.”

13. DEXs hit >25% of spot volume by end-2026

Onchain spot trading share grows from 15–17% as no-KYC access, composability, and fee efficiency pull more traders and market makers onchain.

14. Futarchy governs >$500M of DAO treasuries

Futarchy matures from niche governance to the primary system for capital allocation, pushing exclusively futarchy-governed DAO assets above $500M.

15. Crypto-backed loans outstanding exceed $90B

Borrowing expands across DeFi + CeFi, with a rising share originating onchain as institutions lean more on crypto-native lending rails.

16. Stablecoin borrow rates stay calm (APR stays under 10%)

Deeper liquidity + more institutional capital dampens volatility, while easing offchain rates anchor onchain borrowing costs lower.

17. Privacy tokens exceed $100B combined market cap

As more wealth sits onchain, demand for privacy rises (shielded or mixer-style), pushing the category from ~$63B toward $100B+.

18. Polymarket weekly volume >$1.5B consistently

Prediction markets scale fast as liquidity gets more capital-efficient and AI-driven order flow increases trading frequency.

19. 100+ U.S. crypto ETFs launch (50+ spot altcoin + 50 other)

After generic listing standards, filings convert into a flood of launches: dozens of single-coin spot products plus multi-asset/leveraged crypto ETFs.

20. U.S. spot crypto ETF net inflows exceed $50B

Flows accelerate beyond 2025 levels as distribution opens up (wirehouses/platforms) and new products unlock demand.

21. Bitcoin enters standard model portfolios (1–2% weight)

A major asset-allocation platform adds BTC to default models, turning “advisor-permitted” into systematic portfolio inclusion.

22. 15+ crypto companies IPO or uplist in the U.S.

A big pipeline of mature crypto firms taps U.S. capital markets as regulatory conditions ease, pushing listings into the teens.

23. 5+ Digital Asset Treasury companies break (sell/acquired/shut down)

As mNAV multiples compress, weaker treasury vehicles without durable strategies get forced into liquidation, M&A, or closure.

24. Some Democrats embrace “debanking” concerns—and view crypto as a tool

Expanded compliance/surveillance pressure creates unexpected political realignment: inclusion-focused voices become more receptive to permissionless rails.

25. Federal probe into insider trading/game fixing tied to prediction markets

With prediction market growth and pseudonymous access, suspicious activity triggers investigations—especially where insiders exploit private info.

26. x402 payments become meaningful onchain traffic (Base 30%, Solana 5%)

Agentic payments standards (x402) scale as AI agents transact more, making standardized onchain payments a core execution primitive.

You can read the full report here: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/predictions-2026-crypto-bitcoin-defi