Bernstein: As Corporate Treasury Holdings and ETF "Supply Squeeze" Intensify, Bitcoin Will Hit New High

April 29th. This year, the narrative surrounding the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating between being "like gold" and having a "Nasdaq" correlation. Nevertheless, Bernstein analysts think that the short-term correlation is highly deceptive. Key indicators such as the exhaustion of retail in selling, the trend of corporate accumulation, and the inflows into ETF funds are what have the potential to bring about a "supply squeeze" that could lead to the price reaching new highs. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC (approximately $4 billion), joining the fray among companies like Strategy. Currently, approximately 80 companies hold a total of 700,000 BTC, which accounts for 3.4% of the total supply. The net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF reached $3 billion last week, hitting a five-month high. The total holdings represent 5.5% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, and institutional ownership has increased from 20% in September last year to 33%. Among these, 48% are held by investment advisors, reflecting the demands of asset allocation. When combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital now controls 9% of the BTC supply. If the U.S. government were to implement a strategic reserve, it could trigger a race among sovereign nations to accumulate coins. The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has decreased from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only been transferred to ETF custodians. Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak of around $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent one-year bear markets during this period. (The Block)