Bitcoin (BTC) — Onchain News & Whale Tracking

Benson Sun: Bitcoin may experience a slow bull run in this cycle and will gradually reach new highs.

Crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun posted that he expects Bitcoin’s current market cycle to follow a slow bull run marked by successive new all-time highs, rather than the sharp short-term rallies that peaked abruptly in 2013 and 2017. Before the actual cycle peak arrives, the market may see multiple local topping signals in succession. He noted that since 2021, BTC’s main buying demand has gradually shifted from retail investors to institutional players including public companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries. Since institutions primarily purchase spot assets, and some funds also use delta neutral strategies for arbitrage, traditional metrics such as funding rates and MVRV Z-Score may not reach extreme levels again at the cycle peak. The upcoming cycle peak is more likely to be defined by a lack of follow-through from institutional capital, rather than widespread retail euphoria. The Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI), which tracks overall U.S. dollar liquidity, Strategy’s mNAV, and Bitcoin ETF net flows, is designed to determine if institutional capital is aligning with BTC when the asset hits new highs. A yellow divergence occurs when BTC posts a 30-day rolling high while the ILI fails to rise in tandem; a red divergence forms when BTC breaks its all-time high and the ILI is in divergence and below 50. Benson Sun stated that he will use the number of yellow divergences as a reference for gauging the cycle’s progress: each occurrence will prompt him to appropriately reduce his altcoin positions and leverage; as the market enters its later stages, he will gradually increase his BTC allocation and eventually hold only spot assets. If a red divergence appears, he will stop further participation.

Analysis: As global debt continues to rise, Bitcoin benefits from the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies.

According to Forbes, Bitcoin briefly neared $90,000 earlier this month. Meanwhile, global debt continues to climb, and "currency devaluation trades" focused on the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies have emerged as one of the factors driving up assets like Bitcoin and gold. Data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of this year, pushing the total above $365 trillion. U.S. debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual interest payments hitting $1.27 trillion—surpassing spending on defense and Medicaid, and trailing only Social Security expenditures. The IIF warns interest costs will rise further as benchmark rates increase. Nic Puckrin, founder and cross-asset analyst at The Coin Bureau, said the current environment favors "devaluation assets" such as Bitcoin and gold, which is part of the reason for Bitcoin’s recent rally. The larger major economies’ debt loads, the more likely they are to suppress real borrowing costs and let inflation erode debt’s real value, boosting the appeal of such trades. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter point out the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power has fallen 23% since 2020; if assets have only risen 30% over the same period, investors are essentially breaking even when adjusted for real purchasing power. U.S. inflation has stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 60 consecutive months.

Fidelity executive: Power law model shows Bitcoin may have entered a new bull market, could rise to $300,000 by 2029

Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer stated in a post that Bitcoin’s power law model indicates a new cyclical bull market is unfolding after the cryptocurrency held above $60,000. Per the model’s projections, Bitcoin’s target price will reach $300,000 by 2029. The Bitcoin power law model is a long-term valuation framework that posits Bitcoin’s price has a power-function relationship with either time or network adoption scale. The model estimates future price trajectories and valuation ranges by fitting historical data such as prices and address growth, though it is a statistical extrapolation based on historical patterns rather than a definitive price forecast.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's unrealized profits and take-profit volumes rise in tandem, market faces correction risk.

CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno stated that amid Bitcoin’s recent rally, the market’s unrealized profit rate climbed to 33%, reaching its highest level since December 2024. At the same time, Bitcoin’s take-profit volume rose to 25,700 BTC, marking the highest level since 2026. Moreno pointed out that the simultaneous increase in the unrealized profit rate and take-profit volume typically signals that the current upward momentum is weakening, leaving the market facing a correction risk.

Total net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2.3 billion this week.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a total net inflow of $2.3858 billion this week. The breakdown is as follows: BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net inflow of $1.1576 billion; Fidelity’s FBTC, $701.6 million; ARK 21Shares’ ARKB, $294.7 million; Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, $203.3 million; and Bitwise’s BITB, $13.9 million.

Analysis: Bitcoin has officially transitioned from the early bull market phase to the full bull market stage, with a bullish market structure.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that during Bitcoin’s rally on August 20, the adjusted MVRV 30DMA/365DMA ratio crossed above its own 365-day moving average, marking the start of the market’s "early bull market" phase. At that time, BTC was trading at $71,255. This phase lasted 31 days, with Bitcoin rising a total of 13%. On September 20, the ratio broke through the 1.0 baseline, as the short-term MVRV average exceeded the annual average, officially pushing the market into the "bull market" phase, with BTC priced at $80,691. Currently, the ratio stands at 1.018, and BTC is trading at $84,156. As long as the ratio remains above 1.0, the market structure will remain bullish.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $134.5 million, bringing the total net inflow over the past seven days to $2.9783 billion.

According to Farside data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $134.5 million yesterday, marking their seventh consecutive trading day of net inflows exceeding $100 million, with total net inflows over the seven-day period hitting $2.9783 billion. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $87 million yesterday, extending their streak of daily net inflows to six consecutive trading days.

Bitcoin Rune DOG has seen a significant price deviation on Bitget, leading to calls for the resumption of spot trading.

Leonidas, a core member of the Bitcoin Rune DOG community, has published a lengthy open letter to Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, criticizing the exchange’s highly unusual decision to delist DOG just hours after a hack, while withdrawals remained frozen. The delisting announcement, paired with frozen withdrawals and a trust crisis stemming from the hack, caused a significant price deviation for DOG on Bitget, resulting in losses for long-term holders who trade regularly on the platform. Leonidas noted that DOG boasts a market capitalization of over $100 million, has been listed on Bitget for two and a half years with a cumulative trading volume exceeding $1 billion, and has a far larger community than many small-cap tokens still traded on the exchange. On behalf of the community, he formally demanded Bitget reinstate spot trading to resolve the abnormal market situation, while also wishing the exchange a speedy recovery of stolen assets and proper handling of the hack’s aftermath.

Yilihua: Bitcoin faces a normal correction after climbing to $86,000, adopting a "bearish but not shorting" stance, with ETH showing even stronger momentum.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi wrote in a post that after Bitcoin (BTC) rose to around $86,000, it is facing a normal correction. In the current bull market, investors should "be bearish but not short" and wait patiently for the next long trading opportunity. He noted that for specific trading opportunities, Ethereum (ETH) is showing stronger performance; trading infrastructure assets such as UNI and HYPE are gaining market acceptance, while ZEC is a "strong-whale asset".

Bitcoin falls below $84,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000, with a 0.34% drop over the past 24 hours.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin holders are taking profits, but the scale is far lower than at historical peaks.

As Bitcoin (BTC) recently rebounded to around $85,000, holders have started taking profits, but the volume of realized profits is significantly lower than during previous market peaks. Data shows BTC holders have accumulated roughly $2.4 billion in realized profits recently, while daily realized profits typically hit $7 billion to $10 billion during past market peaks. BTC has risen approximately 44% so far this quarter, hitting a peak near $85,000, marking its best quarterly performance since Q4 2024, after three consecutive quarters of declines. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of around $2.84 billion over the past six trading days, exceeding BTC holders' realized profits in the same period; year-to-date, the ETFs' cumulative net inflow has also turned positive at roughly $800 million. Ethereum (ETH) has also shown signs of capital outflow from exchanges: around 410,000 ETH has been moved out of trading platforms over the past month, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have attracted a combined $680 million in net inflows over the past four trading days. Following the $452 million Bitget hack, BTC, ETH and other major crypto assets have not shown significant signs of weakening so far. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index have temporarily slowed their rally, but crude oil markets remain highly volatile due to news related to U.S.-Iran tensions.

Viewpoint: When U.S. Treasury yields rise to 5%, Bitcoin behaves more like gold rather than traditional risky assets.

Bitfinex released a chart analysis noting that when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reaches 5%, Bitcoin’s price behavior aligns more closely with gold than with traditional risk assets. Currently, the correlation between BTC and gold has climbed to 0.52, while the correlation between BTC and daily changes in U.S. Treasury yields has turned negative.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $85,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to surpass $85,000, with a 1.76% increase over the past 24 hours.

Sequans has liquidated all its Bitcoin holdings and fully exited its Bitcoin treasury strategy.

French semiconductor company Sequans Communications has sold its remaining 314 Bitcoin (BTC), officially completing its exit from the Bitcoin treasury strategy. Sequans Communications stated that it no longer holds any cryptocurrency, and will focus its business on the Internet of Things and software-defined radio sectors moving forward.

Analyst: Bitcoin long-term holders’ realized profits are far lower than previous peaks, and they may continue holding.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are generally more stable than short-term holders (STHs) and less sensitive to market volatility, so monitoring their fund activities helps assess selling pressure. Data shows LTHs’ current realized profit is approximately 72%. While this level appears high, it remains far lower than previous market phase peaks—for instance, in December 2024, LTHs’ realized profit once neared 350%. Currently, LTHs are in a relatively mild profit-taking phase, a level close to that seen during the prior bear market, which may prompt most long-term holders to wait rather than sell off en masse immediately.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $190.7 million, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs logged a net inflow of $66.1 million.

According to Farside’s monitoring, on September 24, total net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hit $190.7 million, broken down as follows: BlackRock’s IBIT: +$162.6 million; Fidelity’s FBTC: +$12.9 million; Morgan Stanley’s MSBT: +$10.2 million; Franklin’s EZBC: +$4.9 million; Bitwise’s BITB: +$4.1 million; WisdomTree’s BTCW: -$4 million. ARK’s ARKB, Invesco’s BTCO, Valkyrie’s BRRR, VanEck’s HODL, Grayscale’s GBTC, and other Bitcoin ETFs saw no net inflows or outflows. Total net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs yesterday reached $66.1 million, with breakdown: BlackRock’s ETHA: +$26.8 million; Fidelity’s FETH: +$21.5 million; Grayscale’s ETH: +$17.8 million. BlackRock’s ETHB, Bitwise’s ETHW, 21Shares’ TETH, VanEck’s ETHV, Invesco’s QETH, Franklin’s EZET, Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, and Grayscale’s ETHE recorded no net inflows or outflows.

The U.S. Secretary of Defense lists Bitcoin in his 2025 financial disclosure, with valuations ranging from approximately $16,000 to $65,000.

According to CNBC, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s newly released 2025 annual financial disclosure shows his household’s cash, retirement investments, and Bitcoin holdings are worth at least approximately $3.1 million. The Bitcoin is valued between $16,000 and $65,000, and one of his three cash accounts exceeds $1 million.

Crypto whale sets 10 key trading targets: Will gradually close long positions if Bitcoin (BTC) drops below $79,000, and plans to short hedge if BTC surges rapidly to near $100,000

Crypto whale "First Set 10 Big Goals" (@jasonleo) has updated his Bitcoin trading strategy, noting that when BTC rebounded from the $58,000 low in this cycle, he firmly targeted $100,000. However, he failed to accurately time the peak mid-cycle, missing a large chunk of profits. His current average entry for long positions is around $78,000. Regarding future operations, JasonLeo said he will start closing long positions gradually if BTC falls back below $79,000. If BTC surges rapidly to $100,000 in the short term, he will consider opening defensive short positions in the $98,000–$105,000 range to hedge against weekly-level correction risks. If BTC closes above $108,000 on the daily timeframe, the above short position logic will be invalid. If BTC does not rally directly but consolidates fully in the $80,000–$100,000 range, he will take defensive actions in the $115,000–$125,000 range.

Trader Maji cuts long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, incurring $1.42 million in account losses over the past 24 hours.

According to TradingBeats' monitoring, crypto figure "Big Brother Ma Ji" (Huang Lichang) has reduced his long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with his account incurring a $1.42 million loss in the past 24 hours. His current positions are as follows: Ethereum (ETH) long positions worth approximately $96.47 million, with an unrealized loss of around $50,000, entry price of $2,658.94, and liquidation price of $2,549.76; HYPE long positions worth about $19.72 million, with an unrealized loss of roughly $330,000, entry price of $93.25, and liquidation price of $72.96; Bitcoin (BTC) long positions worth approximately $16.72 million, with an unrealized loss of around $20,000, entry price of $83,693.60, and liquidation price of $64,174.98.

Bitcoin rebounds to break through $84,000, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.7%.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has rebounded to break through the $84,000 level, with its 24-hour decline narrowing to 1.7%.

Bitcoin ETFs see $320M inflow, Ethereum ETFs add $131M as weekly flows surge to $3B combined

Sept 24 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +3,824 $BTC(+$320.43M)?? 7D NetFlow: +28,862 $BTC(+$2.42B)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +49,304 $ETH(+$131.2M)?? 7D NetFlow: +211,638 $ETH(+$563.17M)??

Markets are pricing in four more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve through June next year, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below $83,000.

CME FedWatch data shows markets are currently pricing in a cumulative four interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by June 2027, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%–5%, a 100 basis point increase from the current 3.75%–4% range. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 20-year yield approaching 5.5% and the 10-year yield breaking above 5.1%—hitting its highest level since 2007. The long-term U.S. Treasury ETF TLT fell below $80. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index broke above 101, up roughly 3% year-to-date. Factors driving the rise in U.S. Treasury yields include strong economic data, Middle East tensions boosting inflation and energy prices, and increased bond supply from AI infrastructure financing. Pressed by high interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar, BTC has dipped from its recent high of $87,500 to below $83,000, while gold has held above $4,200.

During Bitcoin's price correction, a whale dumped BTC worth $41.6 million. If the current BTC price rallies back to $84,100, the whale will be liquidated.

According to TradingBeats' monitoring, during Bitcoin (BTC)'s minor pullback, an address starting with 0xc3ed on Hyperliquid added a short position of approximately 500.88 BTC 10 minutes ago, bringing its total open positions to around $41.641 million at an average entry price of $83,135.2. As of press time, the address still holds the full short position, valued at roughly $41.657 million, with an unrealized loss of about $16,000. It is using 40x isolated margin leverage, with a liquidation price of $84,174.1. BTC is currently quoted at $83,168; a roughly 1.2% rebound would likely trigger its liquidation line.

Bitcoin drops below $83,000, posting a 1.7% intraday loss.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $83,000, currently trading at $82,963.07, with an intraday decline of 1.7%.

Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $346.9 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $104.5 million.

According to Farside’s monitoring, the total net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hit $346.9 million yesterday. Breakdown: BlackRock’s IBIT saw a net inflow of $166.3 million; Fidelity’s FBTC, $143.2 million; Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, $32.4 million; ARK’s ARKB, $5 million. Bitwise’s BITB, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, VanEck’s HODL, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Grayscale’s GBTC recorded no net inflows or outflows. Separately, the total net inflow into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs stood at $104.5 million yesterday. Breakdown: BlackRock’s ETHA, $50.8 million; Fidelity’s FETH, $41.3 million; Grayscale’s ETHE, $4.3 million; VanEck’s ETHV, $4 million; Franklin’s EZET, $3 million; 21Shares’ TETH, $2.9 million; Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, $1.4 million; Invesco’s QETH, $0.9 million. Notably, Grayscale’s ETH posted a net outflow of $4.1 million, while BlackRock’s ETHB and Bitwise’s ETHW had no net inflows or outflows.

StarkWare: AI-Assisted Programming Cuts Estimated Computational Cost of Quantum-Secure Bitcoin Transactions to $66

Blockchain technology firm StarkWare announced that after a week of AI-assisted programming, its estimated computing cost for quantum-secure Bitcoin transactions has fallen from roughly $320 to $66, a reduction of about 79%. Previously, a related transaction completed by StarkWare in August required around 3,100 hours of computing time, used approximately 100 GPUs, and carried a computing cost of $320. Following this, StarkWare launched a code optimization contest, where participants leveraged AI tools to enhance search efficiency, leading to a roughly 5x improvement in computing speed. The solution uses a hashing mechanism to help Bitcoin counter potential quantum computing threats, and does not require a soft fork upgrade to the Bitcoin network. That said, the $66 figure is currently only an estimate based on test results; the improved code has not yet been proven to successfully power another transaction mined on the Bitcoin network.

Analyst: Bitcoin market momentum has shifted, marking the 5th time in history a bull market confirmation signal has emerged.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base has confirmed crossing above that of Active Long-Term Holders (LTH), signaling a shift in market momentum, leading him to conclude that Bitcoin’s bull market has been confirmed. This marks the 5th occurrence of this signal in history, though he stressed the relevant indicator still carries a risk of misjudgment. "Active LTH" is defined as long-term held Bitcoin that has moved at least once in the past seven years, to exclude long-term dormant or non-circulating BTC. Currently, over 3.5 million BTC held for more than 10 years remain dormant, with this supply growing by an average of 8,000 to 30,000 BTC monthly. Since 2019, this indicator has only recorded one instance of negative growth, triggered by an early miner reactivating and transferring roughly 100,000 BTC—a relatively isolated event. Darkfost argues the current signal reflects positive shifts in the Bitcoin market, with ETF liquidity inflows serving as one of the driving factors.

A prominent trader predicts Bitcoin could correct to $79,000, with the bull market set to continue after the adjustment concludes.

Well-known trader Doctor Profit stated that he has increased his Bitcoin short position to $13 million, expecting BTC to undergo a correction targeting $79,000. He will decide on his next moves based on price performance once Bitcoin hits that level, and emphasized that this short position does not reflect a bearish outlook on Bitcoin’s long-term trend. The trader believes Bitcoin’s bear market has ended, and the current pullback is merely a phase adjustment within the ongoing bull run; once the correction concludes, Bitcoin’s bull market will continue.

A prominent trader noted that during the previous bull market, Bitcoin’s maximum pullback before its all-time high (ATH) was 22%, adding that this cycle’s pullback should likely not exceed 15%.

Prominent trader Killa posted that during the previous crypto bull cycle, Bitcoin’s largest pullback before hitting its all-time high (ATH) was 20-22%, meaning the leading cryptocurrency never corrected more than 22% while rallying toward its ATH. Applying the same proportional logic to the current cycle, a relatively mild bear market (which saw Bitcoin fall 54% this cycle, a far shallower decline than prior downturns) should result in a similarly moderate bull market pullback, putting this cycle’s expected major correction in the roughly 10-15% range. Killa argues mathematically that this means buying dips with 4x leverage should be relatively safe as Bitcoin advances toward its $126,000 peak, provided traders do not go long at the top of each market phase. A BTC-focused quantitative trader, Killa correctly predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then flipped to a long position during the broad market selloff on June 5.

Bitcoin undergoes a correction, altcoins see sharp pullbacks, while earlier strong cryptocurrencies take the opportunity to consolidate.

Following Bitcoin’s pullback yesterday, altcoins across the crypto market plunged sharply. According to HTX market data, on the CEX’s decline leaderboard, MUBARAK led with a 32.14% drop, while ONE fell over 24% to take second place. Previously strong tokens such as UNI saw a 11.75% decline today, retreating to above its prior support level, now trading at $9.254. ZEC dropped 6.16% to $1,516.99. LIT, which hit an all-time high yesterday, remained relatively resilient with no notable correction, currently priced at $5.3438, up 4.75% over 24 hours.

Resurgent interest rate hike expectations hit US stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the Nasdaq ending its four-day winning streak and Bitcoin falling below $85,000.

Overnight, unexpectedly strong PMI data sharply boosted market bets that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tighter stance for longer, coupled with factors such as uncertainty over US-Iran tensions, leading to broad declines in US stocks and crypto assets. The three major US stock indexes closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.1%. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), among notable stocks, SK Hynix fell 3%, Meta rose 1%, and Amazon declined 2%. Among crypto-related stocks, Securitize, which benefits from the SEC’s stock token exemption policy, surged 10.46% against the trend, while other crypto treasury companies saw declines of varying degrees: MSTR fell 3.07%, BMNR dropped 4.52%, and BNC slid 3.63%. The PMI data, released Wednesday, far exceeded expectations, marking the fastest expansion pace since 2021. As a result, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 14 basis points in a single day, breaking through the 5.00% threshold; the 5-year yield hit its highest level since 2007 during trading, while the 30-year yield climbed to its peak since 2004. The interest rate swap market has fully priced in expectations of three rate hikes over the next year, with some hedge positions even reflecting the possibility of a fourth hike. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin accelerated its sharp decline after yesterday’s US stock market opened, briefly falling below $84,000 before consolidating sideways, and is currently trading at $84,417.10.

Bitcoin breaks through $80,000, backed by institutional funds; analysts hold divergent views on the sustainability of this rally.

Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and hit a high of $87,300. Analysts note the current rally is backed by strong inflows from institutional capital and spot Bitcoin ETFs, but metrics including trading volume, market breadth, and derivatives positions have sparked debate over whether the uptrend can sustain. K33 points out that Bitcoin’s recent pullback in both magnitude and duration is significantly smaller than those during major bear markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021, suggesting the current cycle’s low may have already been established. The firm also adds that Bitcoin still has catch-up potential relative to gold and U.S. equities. 21Shares attributes the crypto market’s regulatory tailwinds to the U.S. SEC’s “innovation exemption” and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) advancing relevant rulemaking. K33 further notes that fading uncertainties—such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the vote on the CLARITY Act—also helped drive the market’s breakout. However, Nexo takes a cautious stance, highlighting that recent declines in trading volume, narrowing rally breadth, and rising derivatives leverage could expose Bitcoin to risks of profit-taking or a temporary correction. Capital.com’s analysts identify the $87,000–$88,000 range as the near-term resistance zone; a breakout would target $90,000 next, while key support levels to watch are $84,000–$85,000 and $80,000. Fundstrat founder Tom Lee claims the crypto bull market has already begun, citing drivers including the reflow of AI capital back into crypto markets, improved crypto fundamentals such as tokenization and AI integration, and the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1 billion yesterday, marking the first positive net flow year-to-date.

Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn published a post stating that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1 billion yesterday, marking their largest single-day net inflow since 2026. Thorn noted that this capital inflow pushed the year-to-date net flow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to turn positive for the first time since April.

Bitcoin fell more than 2% in the past half hour.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen more than 2% in the past half hour, currently trading at $84,139. Over the same period, Ethereum has dropped over 2.5%, now at $2,652.

Bitcoin falls below $84,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $84,000 and is currently trading at $83,979.

Bitcoin ETFs see $609M inflow, Ethereum ETFs add $184M as weekly flows surge

Sept 23 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +7,107 $BTC(+$609.37M)?? 7D NetFlow: +20,738 $BTC(+$1.78B)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +67,597 $ETH(+$183.83M)?? 7D NetFlow: +86,117 $ETH(+$234.2M)??

Glassnode: Bitcoin has likely established a bottom, with a low probability of further sharp declines.

Glassnode stated in a social media post that the four-year cycle playbook many investors rely on has not worked for Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bear market. To date, the drawdowns of the previous three bear markets were more than double that of this cycle, and each was still weeks away from their respective lows at comparable stages. As weeks pass, the likelihood of BTC falling to the depths seen in prior bear cycles appears increasingly slim.

Zest Announces On-Chain Proof for Bitcoin-Collateralized Vault Mainnet Demo

Bitcoin lending protocol Zest Protocol has released its "Proof of Mainnet Deployment", with the mainnet demo of its Bitcoin Collateral Vaults now independently verifiable. A total of 3 Bitcoin transactions and 7 Ethereum transactions have been made public. The product design locks BTC in Bitcoin mainnet vaults, avoiding wrapping or cross-chain bridging, and allows users to borrow stablecoins on EVM-compatible chains such as Ethereum. This feature remains a mainnet prototype, not a fully open deposit and lending service. The official roadmap is divided into two phases: Phase 1 uses pre-signed transactions to restrict BTC settlement paths, while Phase 2 will transition to BitVM verification. A functional mainnet prototype is now available, and the team is accelerating its official deployment.

Starcloud plans to achieve space-based Bitcoin mining by the end of the year, and will deploy ASICs on its second satellite.

Nvidia-backed startup Starcloud plans to launch a space-based bitcoin mining operation by the end of this year. CEO Philip Johnston said in an interview, "We will be the first company to mine bitcoin in space, and we will carry some bitcoin mining ASICs on our second spacecraft, which is scheduled to launch later this year." Founded in 2024, Starcloud’s core goal is to send its data centers into space, leveraging continuous solar power and radiative cooling to avoid ground licensing restrictions while scaling to gigawatt-level computing power. Starcloud-2, the second of the company’s four planned satellites, is positioned as its first commercial mission and will carry a GPU cluster, though the official project page does not mention bitcoin mining or ASICs. Johnston explained the financial rationale behind the shift to bitcoin mining: ASICs cost roughly 30 times less per kilowatt than GPUs. A 1-kilowatt Nvidia B200 chip costs around $30,000, while a 1-kilowatt ASIC is only about $1,000.

This Friday, Bitcoin options will see a large-scale quarterly expiration, with the main pain point at $75,000.

This Friday, Bitcoin’s quarterly options contracts are set for a large-scale expiration. Crypto options platform Deribit has roughly one-third of its contracts expiring, with 184,000 BTC options to be settled, carrying a nominal value of around $15.9 billion. The maximum pain point is $75,000, and the call-to-put option ratio stands at 0.69.

Bitcoin falls below $86,000, with its 24-hour price gain narrowing to 0.96%

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $86,000, with its 24-hour price gain narrowing to 0.96%.

Analysis: Bitcoin’s price has diverged from its demand, with ETF inflows and coin hoarding via transfers out of trading platforms acting as short-term support.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes that while Bitcoin’s price is rising, sustained buying pressure has yet to reestablish, leaving mixed market signals. As of the 30th, cumulative spot demand stood at -180,000 BTC, remaining negative; futures demand was +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly down. Total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still in negative territory overall. A recent divergence has emerged between price and total demand: Bitcoin’s price is up, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating the rally is driven more by easing selling pressure than strong buying. Breaking down by segment, demand recovery is uneven. For institutional players, while geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions remain unfavorable, the volume-weighted Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, signaling U.S. spot prices occasionally trade at a premium to other markets, with institutional selling pressure easing notably. ETFs have been the biggest change in this cycle: demand has flipped completely compared to this summer, with recent net purchases of roughly 70,000 BTC. Cumulative inflows for 2026 still stand at around -17,000 BTC, but are close to turning positive. For trading platforms, net outflows dominated throughout September, a trend pointing to accumulation rather than distribution—Bitcoin leaving exchanges typically translates to lower near-term selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost concludes that the current price rally is not driven by stronger buying, but rather by investors refraining from adding more selling pressure at higher price levels, leaving the market structure still fragile.

Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $714.7 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of massive net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $162.2 million yesterday.

According to monitoring by Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $714.7 million yesterday, marking their third consecutive day of net inflows exceeding $400 million. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $350 million, while FBTC saw a net inflow of $257.4 million. Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $162.2 million yesterday, with ETHA registering a net inflow of $88.1 million and FETH notching $33.6 million in net inflows.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin’s rebound has seen spot buying stepping in, with its sustainability hinging on ETF inflows and leverage levels.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud noted that Bitcoin bottomed out amid dual pressures of interest rate hikes and stalled legislative clarity, then rebounded rapidly, gaining roughly 16% in a week. On September 21, its intraday price rose to $87,307 (Huobi HTX spot price), marking a new high since January. This rally was driven by three factors: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of about $1 billion on September 21, the largest such daily inflow this year; short positions worth around $650 million were liquidated within 24 hours; and falling oil prices cooled inflation expectations. Unlike last week’s rebound dominated by passive covering, this week saw spot buying take the lead. Whether the rally can sustain depends on two points: whether ETF inflows can shift from a one-day pulse to a continuous trend, and whether leverage can remain at a non-overheated level. Currently, the funding rate is around 0.01%, sitting in the neutral range, but Bitcoin’s derivatives open interest has rebounded to over $61 billion. If market sentiment weakens, high leverage will amplify drawdowns. Market sentiment has entered the extreme greed zone, a historical precursor to short-term trend reversals. On the technical front, $87,500 is the immediate resistance level, while the first support zone ranges from $84,000 to $85,000. The trend has conditions to continue, but the phase of peak sentiment also brings the highest short-term volatility risk. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.

Bitcoin briefly breaks through $87,000

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly broke through $87,000, currently trading at $86,929.33, with a 24-hour increase of 0.67%.

Bitcoin's global derivatives open interest exceeds $61.2 billion, with short positions still dominating.

According to Coinglass data, the total open interest of Bitcoin contracts across the network currently stands at $61.258 billion, with a 24-hour aggregated long-short ratio of 0.972. Open interest and trading volumes on major exchanges are as follows: Binance holds $9.233 billion in Bitcoin contracts, with a 24-hour trading volume of $13.792 billion and a 24-hour long-short ratio of 0.9099; Hyperliquid has $4.044 billion in Bitcoin contracts, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.667 billion and a 24-hour long-short ratio of 0.994; Bybit holds $5.226 billion in Bitcoin contracts, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.82 billion and a 24-hour long-short ratio of 0.9857; Bitget has $1.787 billion in Bitcoin contracts, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.674 billion and a 24-hour long-short ratio of 0.9814.

CryptoQuant Founder Predicts Bitcoin Will Rise 3 to 5 Times in This Bull Run, With Extreme Volatility to Ease

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated in a post that he expects Bitcoin’s current bull run to surge 3 to 5 times, rather than another parabolic rally of over 10x, followed by a more moderate bear market. As Bitcoin’s market capitalization expands and institutional holdings rise, the extreme rallies once dominated by retail investors and hot money, along with 80%+ crashes, are being suppressed. Factors limiting upside are also mitigating downside risks. The PNL index shows that the extremes of Bitcoin’s cycle tops and bottoms are decreasing, while overall position profitability during bottom formation continues to rise. In this cycle, the MVRV ratio never fell below 1; even at market lows, Bitcoin’s price remained above holders’ average on-chain cost basis. Moreover, realized market capitalization keeps climbing, signaling new capital inflows. Early whales have ceased selling, and futures market whales have built substantial long positions near the bottom. The 365-day moving average of the PNL index is also forming a clear inflection point. This does not mean Bitcoin has an upside cap, but rather that the market’s risk-reward structure is evolving. Giving up a 10x+ parabolic rally also means avoiding an 80% extreme drop—this lower volatility could attract more long-term-focused capital instead of short-term hot money. He added that Bitcoin’s development path may gradually approach Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision: becoming a stable enough asset to truly function as a currency. As Bitcoin matures further, internet-native capital could reshape the global economy in ways exceeding expectations.

US-Iran talks send positive signals, Bitcoin consolidates strongly, and the three major U.S. stock indexes show mixed performance.

U.S. and Iranian officials held roughly three hours of talks on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. U.S. President Donald Trump later described the engagement as "very good" and "very productive," adding that the two sides have scheduled another meeting in the "near future." According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks closed on Tuesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.36%, the S&P 500 edged up slightly, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%, marking another record closing high. Micron Technology (MU.O) gained 5%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) rose more than 3%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) climbed 6.8%, and Cisco (CSCO.O) dropped over 4%. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin remains in strong consolidation, trading at $86,195 with a 0.35% 24-hour decline. ZEC has surged past $1,600, currently priced at $1,633, hitting another recent high.

Coinbase teams up with Morpho to launch Bitcoin collateralized fixed-rate loan service.

Coinbase has announced the launch of Bitcoin collateralized fixed-rate loans, enabling users to access liquidity without selling their BTC, while locking in interest rates and repayment dates prior to borrowing. Built on the Morpho Midnight protocol on the Base network, the new product is now available to eligible users in the United States, excluding New York State. Unlike Coinbase’s earlier launched floating-rate loans, this new offering features fixed interest rates and explicit repayment terms. Coinbase warns that loans carry collateral liquidation risk; failure to fully repay by maturity may trigger liquidation.

Bitcoin ETFs see $1.26B inflow, Ethereum ETFs turn negative with $90.41M weekly outflow

Sept 22 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +14,613 $BTC(+$1.26B)?? 7D NetFlow: +8,277 $BTC(+$712.62M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: +68,434 $ETH(+$187.93M)?? 7D NetFlow: -32,923 $ETH(-$90.41M)??