QCP: Prior to Bitcoin's daily closing price breaking above $100,000, chasing the current level offers limited upside

On May 8th, QCP issued its daily market observation, stating that, as anticipated, last night's FOMC meeting did not bring a great deal of surprises. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged and restated its consistent stance: the U.S. economy is resilient, the labor market is tight, and the inflation rate remains slightly above the 2% target. Although President Trump's proposed tariff plan has reignited trade tensions, bringing new uncertainties to the U.S. economic outlook, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remained cautious and composed. He reiterated that "the cost of being patient is quite low," indicating that there is no pressing need to cut interest rates. Significantly, Powell did not commit to the number of potential rate cuts for this year but deferred this guidance to the June FOMC meeting. However, the market did not wait. The current pricing reflects expectations of three 25-basis-point rate cuts in July, September, and December. This morning, President Trump triggered a wave of risk appetite by teasing a significant trade deal, with market speculation pointing to the UK as a potential trading partner. Although the announcement lacked details, the mere prospect was sufficient to cause price fluctuations across various assets. Cryptocurrency assets responded promptly. Bitcoin rose by 2.74% and decisively regained the psychological level of $99,000. Meanwhile, during the Asian session, Ethereum surged by 6.89%, breaking out of the consolidation range between $1,700 and $1,900 over the past three weeks. In options trading desks, a notable increase in the demand for call options was observed, especially for options expiring in May and June. This flow of funds indicates that traders are becoming more optimistic about further upward movement as the macro environment improves. As we enter the U.S. market opening tonight, all attention will be focused on whether this rebound can be sustained or if there will be the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pullback risk once a trading partner is officially confirmed. Currently, we maintain a tactically cautious approach. Until Bitcoin's daily closing price exceeds $100,000, we believe that chasing the momentum at the current levels offers limited upside potential.