Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Bull Market Returns

On May 12th, Bitfinex Alpha issued a report indicating that Bitcoin has once again exceeded the $100,000 mark for the first time in more than three months, demonstrating a new and strong momentum. Previously, its price had declined by 32% from the January all-time high. Driven by macro tailwinds, including the easing of trade tensions and a dovish shift in the Fed's tone, this breakthrough is in line with a broader shift in risk appetite, with Bitcoin outperforming the stock market. Importantly, funds continue to flow into Bitcoin. This is evidenced by the fact that the market capitalization has reached a historical high and there have been over $920 million in ETF inflows in the past two weeks. On-chain data also shows a significant reduction in the number of Bitcoin held at a loss, with over 3 million BTC returning to a profitable state. Combined with the continuously rising spot trading volume and institution-led ETF inflows, Bitcoin is now on a solid structural foundation. As long as the macro conditions remain supportive, any short-term declines are likely to be quickly absorbed, reinforcing the uptrend and potentially driving BTC to new highs. Meanwhile, the Fed has maintained interest rates in the face of concerns about rising inflation and unemployment, highlighting the risk of stagflation. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and stated that more data is needed before the Fed can decide on further policy actions. Although the market expects a rate cut before July, the Fed remains cautious and prioritizes price stability over a rapid response to growth slowdown. In the crypto space, new developments indicate that there is an increasing interest from institutions and governments in the crypto market, but political and regulatory obstacles still exist. New Hampshire took a bold step forward in financial innovation by becoming the first U.S. state to pass a law allowing investment in cryptocurrency and precious metals. This move reflects the growing momentum of state-level digital asset integration in the evolving national policy debate. In the private sector, BlackRock deepened its regulatory involvement through meetings with the SEC. During these meetings, discussions were held on introducing collateralization for crypto ETFs and improving options trading rules. This meeting marks a significant development in crypto asset regulation. BlackRock advocated for introducing collateralization in Ethereum-based ETFs and expanding product functionalities. This also reflects the SEC's increasingly proactive regulatory stance in shaping the digital asset space.