Matrixport: Market Generally Expects Bitcoin to Break All-Time High, Prices Likely to Extend Bull Run into Summer

On May 16th, Matrixport released its weekly report indicating that Bitcoin has rebounded to the upper limit of the consolidation range ($106,000). Driven by multiple bullish factors, the market generally anticipates its breakthrough of the all-time high. With the gradual mitigation of downside risks at this stage, the upward trajectory of Bitcoin's price has become increasingly evident. Recently, Trump's shift in focus towards fundraising and trading partnerships has further boosted market optimism in both the stock market and Bitcoin. If the tax reduction policy of the Trump era persists and is coupled with potential regulatory relaxation measures, it may further boost market expectations for economic growth, driving a reevaluation of growth prospects and bond yield readjustment. In the current situation, risk assets, especially Bitcoin, are expected to enter a favorable trading period before July. This period coincides with the end of the 90-day tariff truce agreement, the commencement of the second-quarter earnings season, and the peak level of the liquidity indicators we are tracking. Another significant catalyst is the upcoming credit payment process to be launched by FTX, targeting accounts with credit amounts exceeding $50,000, which is expected to start around May 30, 2025. This round of payments is anticipated to distribute around $5 billion in stablecoins, and a substantial portion of the funds may re-enter the crypto market. This additional liquidity may drive market momentum in June and be in line with the continuous inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs and active stablecoin trading. Since Bitcoin broke through the $84,500 technical level in mid-April, it has continuously maintained a constructive bullish outlook. Despite Bitcoin's increase of about $20,000 (approximately 25%), we still believe that the upward momentum is not depleted and the trend is expected to continue into summer.