Analysis: Bitcoin fails its first momentum push, can stay range-bound if it holds the $62,300 level
Blockchain analytics platform Swissblock has released a report stating that Bitcoin’s first momentum ignition has failed, meaning the previously projected trajectory pointing to March to April remains valid. The firm noted that the momentum indicator briefly rose above the zero line but lacked sufficient strength to complete a full ignition, and has since returned to the "Transition Area". Swissblock added that as long as Bitcoin holds the $62,300 to $62,500 range and the momentum indicator stays within the Transition Area, the current trend will remain in sideways consolidation. It emphasized that a failed momentum ignition is not uncommon, and the real focus is whether Bitcoin will break below the Transition Area. If this area is breached, Bitcoin will exit its current consolidation structure and face renewed risk of falling into a capitulation phase.
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Analysis: Bitcoin’s first momentum attempt failed; if it defends the $62,300 level, it can still maintain sideways consolidation.
Blockchain analytics platform Swissblock has released a report stating that Bitcoin’s first momentum ignition has failed, meaning the earlier trajectory pointing to the March-April period remains valid. The firm explained that the momentum indicator briefly rose above the zero line but lacked sufficient strength to complete a full ignition, and has now returned to the "Transition Area". Swissblock added that as long as Bitcoin holds the $62,300-$62,500 range and the momentum indicator stays within the Transition Area, the current sideways consolidation will persist. It noted that momentum ignition failures are not uncommon; the key point to monitor is whether Bitcoin breaks below the Transition Area. If this level is breached, Bitcoin will exit its current consolidation structure and face renewed risk of falling into the capitulation phase.
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Kalshi counters Nevada regulators, accusing them of violating federal law during their investigation.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Kalshi accused Nevada’s gaming regulator on Saturday of violating federal law during an investigation into its geofencing measures. Earlier, the regulator had sought a $120,000 daily fine against Kalshi over allegations that the platform failed to implement a full geofencing plan as ordered by a court. Court documents show that on the day after the relevant compliance deadline, Nevada regulator investigators successfully completed nine transactions on Kalshi’s mobile app via local cellular networks. Kalshi said it had hired GeoComply, a firm licensed by the local gaming regulator, to provide geofencing services as required by the state, and had continuously reported implementation progress to the regulator. Kalshi’s lawyers claimed that Nevada investigators provided false residential addresses to the platform during testing, allegedly violating federal law, and at least one investigator bypassed Kalshi’s own blocking measures. In April this year, a Nevada judge issued a preliminary injunction barring Kalshi from offering related contract trading in the state without obtaining a gaming license.
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Michael Saylor: MicroStrategy’s digital credit tool has outperformed Bitcoin over the past year, and financial engineering can mitigate downside risks.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor said that over the past year, Bitcoin has fallen by 47%, while Strategy’s digital credit instruments have delivered performance ranging from a 27% decline to a 9% gain over the same period, with STRC rising 9%. Financial engineering can convert highly volatile "digital capital" into financial instruments designed to generate returns, provide stability, and reduce downside risks.
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Analysis: The potential 'lost' Bitcoin supply hits an all-time high, accounting for approximately 17.7% of the circulating supply.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted in a post that the amount of Bitcoin supply considered "lost" has reached an all-time high, currently standing at 3.56 million BTC, accounting for roughly 17.7% of the circulating supply. His metric refers to BTC that has not moved for over 10 years. While a tiny number of long-dormant Bitcoin does reactivate in rare cases—such as in July 2025—this long-unmoved supply as a whole continues to grow. More than 14,000 BTC have joined this long-dormant supply category over the past 30 days. This trend naturally reduces the amount of Bitcoin actually in active circulation.
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Prominent crypto trader: If Bitcoin reclaims the $69,500 level, it will officially confirm a shift to a bull market.
Well-known trader Killa posted that Bitcoin has returned above the 0.8 level of the Mayer Multiple, after its price briefly dipped below that threshold earlier. He pointed out that in 2022, BTC also briefly fell below this level before reclaiming it. Killa stated that the real confirmation signal in 2022 came when Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average, following which the bull market began. Currently, BTC’s 200-day moving average is approximately $69,500. He believes that all that’s needed next is for Bitcoin to break back above and hold the 200-day moving average; once that happens, the market can be considered to have officially entered a bull market.
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