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Analyst: Market Has Yet to Show Signs of Overheating, Bitcoin Poised to Reach All-Time High

2025.05.21 12:32:44

On May 21st, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. put up on social media, saying, "Whenever the price of a coin shows a strong upward trend, making a large number of previously losing tokens quickly become profitable, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Profit/Loss Ratio rises to above 200. The higher this indicator goes up, the more likely the market is approaching an 'overheated' or 'sell-off release' stage." Currently, this indicator is at 99, so there are no signs of overheating in the market. If this moving average continues to break through 200, it will be a clear signal that market sentiment is entering a new round of euphoria. In other words, while the market may still keep reaching new highs, the 'easy fuel' that has been pushing the profit/loss ratio higher is basically running out, and subsequent movements will need stronger price momentum or significant volatility to drive the indicator higher again. As I mentioned yesterday, this cycle's third 'compression phase' is the key spring that propels this indicator above 200 and into the overheated stage.
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