QCP: The crypto market is expected to continue ranging in the short term, with the Bitcoin conference being particularly important

May 27th. QCP issued its daily market observation, stating that in response to last Friday's macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin showed relatively restrained behavior even though the stock market had a significant rally. The institutional demand for spot ETFs remained stable, providing underlying support to the market. However, the front-end implied volatility remained firm, and the Bitcoin price traded sideways within a narrow range between $107,000 and $110,000. The recent continuous high volatility indicates that traders are positioning themselves in anticipation of headline risks ahead of the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas from May 27th to 29th. Market attention has started to focus on the lineup of speakers at the conference, including JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Trump Jr., and Eric Trump. The Bitcoin conference held in Nashville last July serves as a useful reference. At that time, President Trump's keynote speech led to a one-day implied volatility surge to over 90, followed by a rapid decline, and Bitcoin dropped nearly 30% in two days. This event continues to impact market sentiment. Although the possibility of a similar significant pullback seems low, market positioning shows a defensive tendency. In the past 24 hours, the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased, and the funding rate has returned to normal. Some high-beta retail traders, such as James Wynn, have also reduced their exposure. The demand for short-term put options remains a key focus. Against this backdrop, there are reports that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion cryptocurrency financing. Although this has been denied, it has increased market sensitivity to headline news. In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within the range. Once the conference concludes and the key speeches end, with the fading of risk premium, the front-end volatility is expected to compress.