QCP Capital: Bitcoin Maintains Low Volatility with a Lack of Breakout Momentum, Market Sentiment Turns Cautious

On June 9th, QCP Capital announced on its official channel, "As summer is approaching, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow range, and the implied volatility remains under pressure. Although the current implied volatility is at a one-year low, it seems 'cheap' on the surface. However, the actual volatility is even lower. Historical data from the past two years shows that short-term option volatility tends to decrease further before July every year. A similar trend was observed around the same time last year." "If the Bitcoin price can break through $100,000 decisively or exceed $110,000, it may rekindle broad market interest. But at the moment, there is no clear short-term catalyst to drive this trend. Although recent macro news has caused brief fluctuations, most of them have been regarded as 'noise' by the market and quickly faded away without triggering a directional breakthrough." "Even with last Friday's U.S. job data exceeding expectations, resulting in stock market gains and gold price declines, Bitcoin remained calm. It was trapped among a confluence of macro factors and lacked a clear direction anchor. Without a compelling reason to drive a new round of upward momentum, the market is showing signs of fatigue. The open interest in perpetual contracts is decreasing, and the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has also started to slow down." "Option trading in the past week also reflects this cautious market sentiment. We have noticed that a significant amount of upward call options expiring in July have been rolled over to September with large trade sizes, indicating that investors are postponing their bullish expectations to a later period."