Ethena Founder: Crypto-Native Capital may have run out of steam to pump meme coin valuations, tokens backed by TradFi endorsement will undergo a complete divergence from regular meme coins

On July 25th, the founder of Ethena Labs, Guy Young, posted on social media: "One of my major worries is that the native capital of the crypto industry may have been depleted and is no longer able to drive meme coins beyond the peak of the previous cycle. Looking at the total nominal market capitalization peak of meme coins in Q4 2021 and Q4 2024, both ended around $1.2 trillion (a value that is almost the same after adjusting for inflation). Perhaps this is the valuation ceiling for 99% of meme projects in terms of global retail capital?" However, for tokens with real business operations, tangible products, and generating revenue for real users, there is a huge blue ocean for expanding channels to stock market institutional investors. Compared to the global stock market capitalization, the entire meme coin market is just a drop in the bucket. The current NAV premium arbitrage is clearly a fleeting phenomenon. Only Saylor is an exception, ultimately due to its unique leverage advantage in its capital structure (quasi non-redeemable + quasi). But why did Ethena still support the ENA treasury strategy of StablecoinX? The core goal is to build a gateway for stock market funds to enter. These funds have a significant excess demand for stablecoins and hyper-growth enterprises in the digital dollar field. This has nothing to do with short-term NAV arbitrage. The key is to open the gate to an untapped capital pool. Ethena is facing the well-known dilemma of VC unlocking pressure. I have personally made countless mistakes in fundraising and still reflect on them. There is a serious misalignment of capital in the crypto world: private VC capital far exceeds the liquid capital required to support token valuations, creating a mirrored opposition to the Web2 world (where private capital is only a fraction of the stock market). Of course, this does not apply to all junk coins. Zero-revenue meme projects, even if dressed in an equity shell, are still empty. But I firmly believe that for the few tokens that can obtain traditional financial endorsement and align with long-term growth trends, this will be a significant positive. In addition to mainstream coins, there are not more than 10 such tokens globally, and they will ultimately be completely differentiated from coins that have never attracted traditional finance.