FOMC: Federal Reserve's September Rate Cut Expectation Boosts Ethereum's Momentum, Jackson Hole Symposium Next Focus

August 13th: QCP issued its daily market observation, indicating that the US July CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market's anticipation of 2.8%; the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 3.0%. The relatively moderate overall inflation data has reinforced the market's expectation that the Fed will initiate a rate-cutting cycle in September. Most market participants currently anticipate a 25-basis-point cut. The commodity inflation, which was previously expected to rise due to companies passing on higher costs to consumers, performed lower than anticipated this time. After the data release, the market's rate-cut expectations for 2025 remained unchanged. The pricing still reflects a rate-cut space of approximately 60 basis points. Despite the softening labor market and the market's expectation of a more dovish Fed chair in 2026, the terminal rate remains stable. Futures positions suggest that investors believe the Fed's rate floor in 2026 will be around 3%. With several key risk events taking place, the US stock market continues to rise and reach new all-time highs. Regarding the tariff standoff, "TACO" remains a core reference for traders. The extension of tariffs between the US and China has been prolonged by 90 days. The geopolitical situation in Ukraine and Russia has eased, and the risk of escalation is regarded as a distant possibility. A ceasefire or peace agreement has become the market's baseline scenario. In the cryptocurrency market, investors holding ETH long-term have finally witnessed excitement as the ETH price is approaching its all-time high. The funding raised by Bitmine to establish an ETH treasury has attracted attention. The market points out that any inflow of funds into ETH has a greater impact compared to Bitcoin because ETH has a smaller market capitalization and slightly lower liquidity. As long as funds continue to flow into ETH decentralized asset tokens (DAT), the current upward momentum of ETH is expected to continue. Looking ahead, the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the next focus. It is expected that Fed officials will signal a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Before the September FOMC meeting, there is only one CPI and one non-farm payroll data release remaining. It is believed that these data are unlikely to significantly change the Fed's decision.