Analyst: Bitcoin Highly Correlated with Russell 2000 Tech Sector

Whale "Set 10 Big Goals" (@jasonleo) posted late at night, noting that the most notable aspect of Bitcoin’s (BTC) current correction is not the magnitude of the drop, but rather "why it only fell this much". He pointed out that recent macro headwinds include the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5.7%, the 10-year yield around 5.3%, rising market expectations for another interest rate hike this year, and resurfacing oil price and inflation pressures. Despite this confluence of negative factors, BTC has only corrected by roughly 5% so far. Jasonleo argues that an asset’s price reaction to news is meaningful in itself. In the past, a single macro headwind could trigger a BTC drop of over 10%; this time, however, under the combined pressure of multiple headwinds, the price has not suffered significant damage—an indication that the current uptrend has notable resilience. Comparing BTC’s current trajectory to its prior bottom near $58,000, he says both periods share the trait of "selling pressure easing after all negative factors are fully priced in", while the market remains in a strong trend. He added that he does not expect BTC to plummet directly to $78,000 or even $74,000, setting $79,000 as the watch level for position adjustments: if BTC breaks below $79,000, he will start reducing positions; if it closes below $78,000 on a daily basis, he will exit all remaining long positions to wait for the next entry opportunity; if the key level holds, he will continue holding long positions.

Synthetic perpetual protocol Papertrade, built on HyperEVM, officially announced its pre-deposit feature is now live. Users can complete deposits and account creation within the next two days. The official noted that account creation and deposits will be significantly restricted once trading launches; depositing early helps avoid opening congestion, though there are no additional benefits for depositing during the pre-deposit period. Papertrade is a fully on-chain synthetic perpetual trading platform deployed on HyperEVM. It fetches prices from the Best Bid/Offer (BBO) mid-price of Hyperliquid’s order book, allowing users to trade directly against the protocol’s liquidity providers (LPs) instead of relying on traditional order book matching. The protocol’s key features include high leverage, zero slippage, and no funding fees. Its native token PAPER has an initial supply of zero, with no pre-mining, team, or venture capital (VC) allocations. The only source of token minting is user losses or liquidations. During the initial launch phase, the token cannot be freely transferred and is primarily used for staking. Per the official timeline, full trading will begin approximately one hour after the expected HyperEVM network upgrade on October 10. The exact time will be announced via Hyperliquid’s Discord. During the opening phase, trading must be conducted through the official website frontend and whitelist relays; direct contract interactions will be opened once congestion eases. For more related reading, see: "Hyperliquid Is Getting Its Own Layer 2: Key Details You Need to Know".

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), losses in the U.S. stock market storage sector have widened further, with individual stocks recording the following declines: Seagate Technology (STX) fell 3.94%; Western Digital (WDC) dropped 3.05%; SanDisk (SNDK) declined 5.4%; Micron Technology (MU) fell 4.21%; and SK Hynix ADR (SKHY) decreased 5.45%.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, the Nasdaq’s decline widened to 1%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 2%. Intel and Marvell dropped over 4%, AMD and Micron declined more than 3%, and Nvidia fell nearly 2%. Earlier news: OpenAI’s annual revenue is $20 billion lower than previously reported, reaching $50 billion as of the end of September, compared to the widely cited $70 billion figure.

Beating AI Express, according to the Financial Times, OpenAI recently disclosed to investors that its annualized revenue stood at nearly $50 billion as of the end of September, significantly lower than the $70 billion reported at the end of last month. Insiders said the discrepancy arises because investors tried to directly compare OpenAI’s annualized revenue with that of its rival Anthropic, as the two companies use different accounting standards: Anthropic includes sales revenue generated via cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud in its revenue, while OpenAI does not. Earlier, investors adjusted OpenAI’s revenue standard to arrive at a $40 billion figure for its August annualized revenue, then combined this with the company’s disclosed revenue growth of over 70% to investors to calculate the $70 billion number. OpenAI declined to comment.

According to the official agenda for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meeting in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh has confirmed his attendance at the event and is scheduled to deliver a public speech on October 16 local time. His trip has been formally included in the meeting’s agenda by the IMF Bangkok Annual Meeting Organizing Committee. As the head of a leading global monetary policy-making institution, Walsh’s appearance has drawn significant attention. During the conference, his speech will focus on elaborating on the current macroeconomic situation and monetary policy framework. The IMF has now released the relevant schedule in accordance with established procedures. All speaking arrangements for participating guests have been posted on the official platform, and specific details of the speeches will be subject to on-site disclosures.