Analysis: Bitcoin May Experience a Deeper Pullback if It Falls Below Short-Term Holder Cost of $106,000

According to TradingBeats monitoring, Hyperliquid whale address 0x936c currently holds around 14.85 million PONS short positions, with a position value of approximately $6.26 million, 2x leverage, cumulative unrealized profit of roughly $2.12 million, and a holding return rate of about 50.6%. The address added roughly 1.09 million PONS short positions today. The mark price of Hyperliquid’s PONS perpetual contract is currently around $0.42, down approximately 21.3% over the past 24 hours.

According to Glassnode’s monitoring, investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) at high levels are now selling. Two groups of investors are in unrealized losses: those who purchased BTC 1–2 years ago hold an average cost basis of around $97,000, while those who bought 6–12 months ago have an average cost of roughly $89,000. Glassnode states that investors who acquired BTC during the 2025 bull run have recorded the highest daily average sell volume this year, whereas investors who bought during market pullbacks have not exhibited similar selling behavior.

GMGN market data shows that the Robinhood Chain project PONS has posted an 18.73% decline over the past 24 hours, with its current market capitalization standing at roughly $427 million and 24-hour trading volume around $23.9 million.

Greek police have busted a cryptocurrency investment fraud ring and arrested 17 individuals, including 9 military personnel. Initial police investigations indicate approximately 10,000 people participated in the scheme, with an average investment of around €800 per person, leading to an estimated total amount involved exceeding €8 million. The ring operated as a clear pyramid scheme, using recruitment of new members to generate higher returns. Additionally, the group recently froze withdrawal functions and claimed that investors who doubled their principal would receive a double payout after 50 days. Authorities have seized approximately €280,000 so far, and the investigation is ongoing.

According to official announcements, Concrete (CT) is set to launch on Bitget PoolX. Users can lock BTC to participate in the airdrop of 1,111,111 CT tokens, with an individual lock-up cap of 50 BTC. The lock-up period runs from 22:00 UTC+8 on October 4 to 22:00 UTC+8 on October 12. This round of PoolX features a long-term holding bonus mechanism, where the system will provide an additional bonus based on users' minimum holding of the corresponding locked asset over the past 15 days. For more details, please refer to Bitget's official platform.

VanEck Digital Assets Research Head Matthew Sigel stated in an interview that with the rapid development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, the power resources and long-term power contracts held by Bitcoin miners are gaining new value. Sigel pointed out that in the past, miners’ core assets were primarily viewed as computing power and BTC production capacity, but AI data centers’ demand for large volumes of stable power is reshaping the market’s valuation of miners’ power contracts. He added that some miners have signed 10-to-20-year long-term power lease agreements with investment-grade counterparties, and these contracts are granting miners "optionality"—a value distinct from pure BTC exposure. The AI sector’s growth is making power an increasingly scarce resource, so miners with low-cost, long-term locked power supplies may unlock new business opportunities, including transitions to AI infrastructure. On the Bitcoin market front, current signs of seller fatigue suggest investors should focus on opportunities following pullbacks. Additionally, Sigel compared the roles of gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios, arguing Bitcoin may continue to expand its market share going forward. He also discussed the potential impact of quantum computing on the Bitcoin network, noting that quantum computing is a long-term risk to monitor but not yet a reason for investors to sell BTC. VanEck remains bullish on Bitcoin adoption trends, and views Bitcoin reaching a certain percentage of the gold market capitalization as one key future valuation reference.