The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently at 86.2%.
On December 7, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) Federal Reserve rate cut in December stands at 86.2%, while the chance of holding rates steady is 13.8%.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision (covering the period through December 10) at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on December 11. The expected federal funds rate is 3.75%, down from the prior 4.00% level. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 3:30 a.m. Beijing time the same day.
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Analyst: Bitcoin 'Activity' Indicator Rising, Signaling Bull Market May Continue
On December 7, Cointelegraph reported that analyst TXMC noted the technical indicator "Liveliness" is trending upward—a pattern that historically signals bull market activity, suggesting the current crypto cycle may not be over yet.
"Despite the recent price downturn, on-chain activity levels for this cycle continue to rise," TXMC stated. "This indicates underlying demand for spot Bitcoin remains strong, though it hasn’t yet translated to price action." The analyst explained the indicator functions like a long-term moving average of on-chain activity, comparing cumulative on-chain spending and holding behavior across all market cycles.
TXMC added, "Liveliness rises when overall token on-chain transaction volume increases; it falls when more tokens are being held—with weights based on the age of those assets. In bull markets, Liveliness typically climbs as supply changes hands at higher price points, a sign fresh capital is consistently flowing into the market."
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The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in a positive premium for 5 consecutive days, currently standing at 0.0278%.
On December 7, data from Coinglass shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has held a positive premium for 5 straight days, currently at 0.0278%.
BlockBeats Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase (a major U.S. exchange) and the global market average. It’s a key indicator for tracking U.S. market capital inflows, institutional investment interest, and shifts in market sentiment.
A positive premium means Coinbase’s Bitcoin price is higher than the global average, typically signaling: strong buying pressure in the U.S. market, active participation from institutions or compliant funds, ample USD liquidity, and slightly optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium, by contrast, indicates Coinbase’s price is below the global average, often reflecting: heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, reduced investor risk appetite, rising market risk aversion, or fund outflows.
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Binance has updated its December Reserve Audit, with a BTC reserve rate of 102.11% and a USDT reserve rate of 109.16%.
On December 7th, Binance announced an update to its December 2025 Reserve Report, disclosing the following reserve rates:
- Bitcoin (BTC): 102.11%
- Tether (USDT): 109.16%
- Ethereum (ETH): 100%
- BNB: 112.32%
This version aligns with U.S. English brevity for news alerts, clarifies token names for readability, and uses a clean bullet format common in quick updates.
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Ethereum CEX Reserves Hit a New Low Since 2015, Market May Face Supply Squeeze
Ethereum’s centralized exchange reserves have hit an all-time low, sparking analyst warnings of a supply squeeze, per the latest data.
As of last Thursday, ETH reserves on exchanges dropped to just 8.7% of circulating supply—its lowest level since the network launched in 2015. The figure remained at 8.8% as of Sunday, staying in an extremely low range. Since July, ETH exchange balances have plummeted 43%.
Concurrently, institutional and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) holdings have seen notable growth.
Research firm Milk Road noted: “ETH is quietly entering the most supply-constrained environment in its history—this is unprecedented.” By contrast, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves still sit at 14.7%.
Analysts point to large amounts of ETH locked in illiquid scenarios (where quick selling isn’t possible), including:
- Staking & restaking
- Layer 2 activities
- DAT treasuries
- Mortgage loops
- Long-term custody
Milk Road added that a supply squeeze could push prices high
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Binance: "Suspected Employee Token Issuance" Incident Noticed, Internal Review Underway
Binance Customer Support officially addressed the “suspected employee token issuance” matter on December 7, stating: “We’ve noted the relevant feedback and are conducting an internal review. We maintain zero-tolerance for any listing-related or other corrupt practices. Once the investigation concludes, we’ll update the community promptly.”
Today, a widely shared claim circulating in crypto communities alleges that a Binance official or connected insider launched a specific meme coin at 13:29:45, and the exchange posted a promotional tweet at 13:30:00 that aligns with the theme of the token in question.
Crypto communities are currently speculating and theorizing about the incident’s details. The facts will remain unconfirmed until Binance releases its official investigation findings.
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