glassnode: Bitcoin Could Drop to $88k if Unable to Reclaim $113k

On October 30th, glassnode released a market insight indicating that the on-chain market structure continues to show that the market is in a phase of adjustment and realignment. Bitcoin was unable to hold above the cost basis of short-term holders, highlighting its weakening momentum and the continuous selling pressure from both short-term and long-term investors. The high level of decentralization among long-term holders and the persistently high exchange outflow suggest that market demand is approaching saturation, implying that the market may need a longer period of consolidation to rebuild confidence. Until long-term holders resume accumulation, the upside potential of Bitcoin may still be limited. The market continues to struggle above the short-term holding cost basis (approximately $113,000), which is a key battleground where bulls and bears are in confrontation. If it fails to regain this level, it may further decline towards the realized price of active investors (approximately $88,000). It is worth noting that this analysis accurately predicted the impact of the unexpected event from the Federal Reserve on Bitcoin: "The current calmness of the market is conditional and temporarily stable. However, if the Fed's actions deviate from expectations, this calmness will become fragile."