Analysis: Bitcoin May Rise on US CPI Slowdown, but Major Rally Seems Unlikely

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3%, the S&P 500 nearly flat, and the Nasdaq up 0.2%. The U.S. storage sector saw broad gains, with Seagate Technology (STX) rising 1.19%, Western Digital (WDC) up 2.4%, SanDisk (SNDK) climbing 5.4%, Micron Technology (MU) increasing 4.3%, and SK Hynix ADR gaining 3.8%.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), crypto-related stocks posted broad gains at the opening of the US stock market. Specifically: Strategy (MSTR) rose 3.2% — it did not add Bitcoin holdings last week, instead selling $334 million worth of stocks, pushing its dollar reserves to $4.8 billion. Coinbase (COIN) gained 1.07%, Circle (CRCL) climbed 1.6%, BitMine Immersion (BMNR) advanced 2.6%, and SharpLink Gaming (SBET) increased 1.42%.

According to BIT (bit.com) market data, the US stock market’s optical communication sector led gains at opening, with: Roundhill Optical Module ETF (LYTE) up 3.53%; Pure Photonics ETF (FOTO) up 0.73%; Corning (GLW) up 1.34%; Coherent (COHR) up 3.54%; Marvell Technology (MRVL) up 5%; Lumentum Holdings (LITE) up 0.7%; and Ciena Corporation (CIEN) up 0.75%.

JPMorgan Chase notified Polymarket in October 2025 that it would terminate its partnership over regulatory concerns. Polymarket has since shifted its banking operations to another unnamed lender. However, the two parties have not completely severed ties; JPMorgan stated it intends to pursue an underwriting role if Polymarket launches an initial public offering (IPO) in the future. A source familiar with the matter said, "They don't want to burn all bridges." Polymarket, in turn, pushed back against claims that the two sides have largely cut ties, stressing that it maintains "close, active relationships with JPMorgan across multiple entities, operational integrations, and the substantial handling of customer cash flows." Prediction markets are seeing explosive growth, with their nominal transaction volume exceeding $250 billion in 2026. This growth has also drawn heightened regulatory scrutiny, with more than 12 U.S. states filing lawsuits against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of operating illegal sports betting. Recently, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) invoked emergency powers to order Kalshi to keep operating in New York, as a jurisdictional dispute between federal and state authorities continues to escalate. Meanwhile, the U.S. government is conducting "debanking" investigations into multiple large banks; former President Donald Trump has himself sued JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon, alleging they closed his accounts for political reasons. JPMorgan’s dual stance—balancing existing banking relationships with potential business opportunities—reflects the caution traditional financial institutions are exercising as the regulatory boundaries for prediction markets remain unclear.

Glassnode’s Bitcoin Market Pulse Report notes that Bitcoin rebounded slightly after pulling back from the $65,000 level over the past week, but remains in a clear range-bound pattern overall. Spot trading volumes and on-chain transaction throughput have continued to contract, reflecting weak market liquidity and low participation. Derivatives markets are also cautious: leverage has expanded moderately, but aggressive trading in perpetual contracts has consistently leaned toward sellers, indicating more aggressive distribution activity. Positive funding rates signal bullish sentiment remains intact, while the options market continues to price downside protection, with premiums still high relative to realized volatility. Institutional demand has weakened in tandem: spot ETF volumes coincide with net outflows, aggregate holdings are near cost basis, leaving regulated investors with limited unrealized profit potential, and institutional accumulation has stalled temporarily. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of Bitcoin supply in loss, and realized losses consistently outpacing realized gains. The report also points out that the pace of broader capital outflows has begun to slow, an early sign that selling pressure may be stabilizing. The overall market structure remains caught between persistent short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, soft institutional capital flows, and elevated realized losses all point to continued consolidation, while slowing outflows suggest the market may be approaching a more balanced state ahead of its next directional move.

Bitcoin mining machine manufacturer Canaan Inc. released its July Bitcoin mining operations data. The company mined 46 BTC in July, and as of month-end, its balance sheet held 1,917 BTC and 3,952 ETH. Non-joint venture mining sites in North America posted an average mining machine energy efficiency of 17.9 J/TH, while global operational computing power hit 14.24 EH/s, with installed computing power standing at 14.89 EH/s. The month’s comprehensive electricity cost was approximately $0.043 per kilowatt-hour.