Analysis: Bitcoin Current Price Has "Almost No Bubble", with Nearly 40% of Chips in Unrealized Losses

November 6th: Analyst Murphy posted a message indicating that during the recent decline, Bitcoin has gotten extremely close to its fair value of $98,000. The fair value of Bitcoin is calculated by taking the average of historical MVRV. If the market's valuation level (MVRV) is at its historical average, then the price of BTC should be around this level, making the fair value a "mean-reverting center." When comparing the current price with the average cost of all active chips, it shows that there is almost no bubble. If the market continues to remain rational, there should be value discovery and buying interest. If the price continues to fall, it suggests that the market has entered an irrational stage (oversold), possibly due to a collapse in confidence. In such cases, participants tend to ignore value reversion and are more inclined towards active hedging. The current BTC Profit Supply Inflation Price (PSIP) is at 72%, already falling into the extreme range of a bull market pullback (70%-75%). Excluding Satoshi's coins and lost coins, this ratio is even lower, indicating that at least nearly 40% of the chips are currently at an unrealized loss. There is also a significant increase in the percentage of long-term holders with losses, which is a signal that the pullback has entered a relatively bottom range. The analyst holds the view that if the recent decline is not the extreme of a bull market pullback, it may mark the start of a bear market cycle. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice.